Space Weather: Data-Enhanced Models for ESF Forecasts in Cooperation with the WestPac Program

该研究人员将应用现有的电离层、电动力学和不稳定增长率模型来研究开发赤道电离层传播干扰的短期预报技术。这项研究将利用西太平洋项目，这是一个由美国国家科学基金会资助的电离层站链，测量控制瑞利-泰勒不稳定性的参数，这是赤道传播F不稳定性的来源。赤道传播F对电离层产生干扰，影响无线电通信，因此是空间天气的一个重要因素。本研究开发的模型将利用电离层条件的经向规范来描述赤道传播F形成的条件。这项研究还将开发一种方法，通过这种方法，电离层数据可以被吸收到一个预测模型中，该模型可以在一台低成本的个人计算机上运行。

This investigators will apply existing models of the ionosphere, electrodynamics, and instability growth rates to examine techniques for developing short-term forecasting of propagation disturbances of the equatorial ionosphere. The study will make use of the WestPac Project, an NSF-funded chain of ionospheric stations measuring parameters that control the Rayleigh-Taylor instability, the source of equatorial spread F instabilities. Equatorial spread F produces disruption to the ionosphere that affects radio communication and is thus an important element of space weather. The model developed in this study will take advantage of the meridional specification of ionospheric conditions to characterize the conditions under which equatorial spread F forms. The study will also develop means by which ionospheric data can be assimilated into a forecasting model that can be run on a low-cost personal computer.