Space Weather: Predicting Geomagnetic Storms from the Magnetic Orientations of Disappearing Filaments and X-Ray Arcades

太空天气：根据消失的细丝和 X 射线拱廊的磁方向预测地磁风暴

• 批准号: 9713460
• 负责人: David Webb
• 金额: $ 10万
• 依托单位: Boston College
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1997-08-15 至 1999-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9713460&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Space; Weather; Predicting; Geomagnetic; Storms

This program will determine how well geomagnetic storms can be predicted from magnetic polarities and orientation of disappearing filaments (DF) and soft x-ray arcades on the Sun. The PI will specifically address whether the topology of these fields is usually preserved upon eruption. The approach will involve: (1) a large data base of DFs, essentially independent of flares, for which the bounding polarities and geometrical orientations of preexisting filaments have been measured, (2) a determination of these properties for a data set of large-scale coronal x-ray arcades observed by Yohkoh, (3) the solar locations of the filaments and arcades into GSM coordinates so geometrical coupling effects influencing the occurrence rate and severity of storms can be accounted for, and (4) a superposed epoch analysis technique to compare different sets of the DF and arcade data with storm indices and a storm data set to determine which solar parameters are most geoeffective. The project results will improve understanding of solar mass ejecta characteristics that are most geoeffective, thereby enhancing the prediction of moderate to large storms, key to forecasting space weather.

该计划将确定从太阳上消失的细丝(DF)和软X射线拱廊的磁极和取向预测地磁风暴的准确度。PI将具体讨论这些油田的拓扑在喷发时是否通常保持不变。这种方法将涉及：(1)基本上独立于耀斑的DFS大型数据库，其中已测量到先前存在的暗条的约束极性和几何方向；(2)Yohkoh观测的大型日冕X射线拱廊数据集的这些性质；(3)将暗条和拱门的太阳位置转换到GSM坐标，以便能够说明影响风暴发生速度和严重程度的几何耦合效应；以及(4)叠加历元分析技术，将不同的DF和Arade数据集与风暴指数和风暴数据集进行比较，以确定哪些太阳参数对地球最有效。该项目的成果将增进对太阳物质抛射特征的理解，这些特征对地球影响最大，从而加强对中到大风暴的预测，这是预报空间天气的关键。