Implementation of a Coupled Air-Sea Numerical Model for Improving Operational Prediction of Landfalling Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic Hurricanes

美国天气研究计划（USWRP）是一项跨部门活动，旨在执行和实施必要的研究，以改善向全国提供的天气服务。根据该计划，国家科学基金会、国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）、国家航空航天局和海军研究办公室将联合评估和支持USWRP的高优先级研究。在USWR的支持下，主要研究人员将进行一项全面的数值模拟/数据同化计划，其目标是开发和测试一个海洋/大气耦合的热带气旋数值模型，并利用该模型研究海洋在登陆前飓风强度快速变化中的动力学作用。飓风/海洋耦合数值系统的主要组成部分是NOAA地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）开发的飓风预报模式和普林斯顿海洋模式。这些将与新的耦合初始化策略和经过良好测试的数据同化技术相结合，以将该耦合模型建立为可靠的数值模型。新的可操作数据集将是预测系统的核心组成部分。主要研究人员将使用耦合模型来检验一些关于海洋在飓风登陆时强度快速变化中的动力学作用的假设。这些因素包括海洋涡流和强大的海洋锋面（如墨西哥湾流）在决定飓风的路径和强度方面的影响。如果成功，这项研究将提高作战预测能力。这项研究将与NOAA/GFDL积极合作进行。＊＊＊

9714412 Ginis The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) is an interagency activity designed to perform and implement the research necessary to improve the delivery of weather services to the nation. Under this Program, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Office of Naval Research are jointly evaluating and supporting research of high priority to the USWRP. Under the auspices of the USWR, the Principal Investigators will undertake a comprehensive numerical modeling/data assimilation program that has as its objectives to develop and test a coupled ocean/atmosphere tropical cyclone numerical model and to utilize this model to investigate the dynamical role of the ocean in rapid hurricane intensity changes near landfall. The primary components of the coupled hurricane/ocean numerical system are the operational hurricane forecast model developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and the Princeton Ocean Model. These will be combined with new coupled initialization strategies and well-tested data assimilation techniques in establishing this coupled model as a trustworthy numerical model. New operationally available data sets will be a central component of the prediction system. The Principal Investigators will employ the coupled model to test a number of hypotheses concerning the oceans' dynamical role in rapid hurricane intensity changes near landfall. These include the effects of ocean eddies and strong ocean fronts (e.g. the Gulf Stream) in determining the track and intensity of the hurricane. If successful, this research will lead to improved operational predictive capabilities. This research will be conducted in active collaboration with NOAA/GFDL. ***