CNH2-L: The coupled, co-evolving roles of drought and electricity systems in humans' exposure to air pollution

干旱会减少水电和核电的供应，从而扰乱电力系统的运行，后者很容易受到冷却水供应不足的影响。其结果是对化石燃料发电厂的依赖增加，这些发电厂排放的污染物会产生细颗粒物和臭氧。人类暴露在这些污染物中会造成各种健康影响，据估计，美国每年有10.9万人过早死亡。干旱往往与天气条件有关，这种天气条件允许更高浓度的细颗粒物和臭氧积聚。该项目调查干旱、电力系统和空气质量如何相互作用，造成人类健康风险高的时期，以及这些相互作用可能如何受到气候和其他环境因素变化的影响。新政策和新技术的采用也可能改变人类对糟糕空气质量的暴露。减少对化石燃料的依赖可能会带来显著的空气质量好处，减少排放可能会影响气象和雪水文学，潜在地改变干旱的频率和严重程度及其对自然和人类系统的影响。这项研究的目的是促进对气候、气象、干旱、发电厂排放、局部人类暴露于空气污染和电力部门技术进步之间的动态联系和反馈的全面了解。将使用四种方法。首先，利用对大气和气象过程、空气物理和化学以及陆地-大气水文学的耦合模拟，该项目将确定干旱和空气质量差时期之间的联系，以及在气候变暖时这些相互作用可能会如何变化。其次，利用水资源基础设施和电力系统的关联模型，将评估干旱和恶劣空气质量的气象驱动因素对发电厂排放和电力市场动态的影响。第三，利用健康暴露模型和经济分析，这项研究将调查干旱导致的发电厂排放增加对健康的影响如何在人口群体中分布，以及电力系统中的水资源压力如何影响系统操作员动态管理电网污染的能力。第四，利用对大气和气象过程、空气物理和化学以及陆地-大气水文学的耦合模拟，将评估人类减少颗粒物和臭氧浓度的努力所起的作用。该项目将调查影响气象和水文过程的反馈，可能加剧或改善未来的干旱，并影响陆地和河岸生态系统。研究团队将与北卡罗来纳州自然科学博物馆合作开发一个更广泛的影响计划，以促进与公众的接触和向不同人口群体传播新的科学知识。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Drought disrupts electric power system operations by reducing the availability of hydropower and nuclear power, with the latter being vulnerable to insufficient cooling water supply. The result is an increased reliance on fossil-fuel power plants, which emit pollutants that contribute to fine particulate matter and ozone. Human exposure to these pollutants causes a variety of health impacts, leading to an estimated 109,000 premature deaths in the U.S. annually. Droughts are often associated with weather conditions that allow for the build-up of higher concentrations of fine particulate matter and ozone. This project investigates how drought, electric power systems, and air quality interact to create periods of high human health risk and how these interactions may be affected by changes in climate and other environmental factors. Adoption of new policies and technologies may also alter human exposure to poor air quality. Reduced dependence on fossil fuels will likely come with significant air quality benefits, and reduced emissions could affect meteorology and snow hydrology, potentially altering the frequency and severity of drought and its impacts on natural and human systems. The objective of this study is to advance holistic knowledge of the dynamic connections and feedbacks among climate, meteorology, drought, power plant emissions, localized human exposure to air pollution, and technological advances in the electricity sector. Four approaches will be used. First, using coupled simulations of atmospheric and meteorological processes, air physics and chemistry, and land-atmosphere hydrology, the project will determine the connections between drought and periods of poor air quality, and how these interactions could change in a warmer climate. Second, using linked models of water resource infrastructure and electric power systems, the effects of drought and the meteorological drivers of poor air quality on power-plant emissions and electricity market dynamics will be evaluated. Third, using health exposure modeling and economic analysis, this research will investigate how health impacts from drought-caused increases in power plant emissions are distributed across demographic groups, and how water stress in power systems affects the ability of system operators to dynamically manage pollution on the grid. Fourth, using coupled simulations of atmospheric and meteorological processes, air physics and chemistry, and land-atmosphere hydrology, the role of human efforts to reduce concentrations of particulate matter and ozone will be assessed. The project will investigate feedbacks that affect meteorological and hydrologic processes, potentially exacerbating or ameliorating future droughts and affecting both terrestrial and riparian ecosystems. The research team will partner with the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences to develop a broader impacts program that will facilitate engagement with the general public and communication of new scientific knowledge to different demographic groups.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.