Economic and Environmental Risk Perceptions in Transitional Societies: Survey Research

1989年共产主义垮台后，东欧的环境和经济问题十分严重，这为研究人们对环境风险的看法与经济机会之间的关系提供了一个有用的实验室。环境激进主义似乎是东欧经济和政治变革背后的驱动力，但在20世纪90年代中期，环保主义似乎失去了相当大的政治势头，这表明环保主义、经济因素和政治变革之间的关系比之前想象的要复杂得多。本研究认为，风险感知与环境政策之间的关系受对环境问题性质的认知(S)和经济因素的影响，也受到政治和政策背景的影响。人们对发达国家和转型期社会的风险认知和环境政策的这些影响知之甚少。在这项研究中，对保加利亚一个压力很大的地区--布尔加斯地区--的风险认知进行了详细的调查，该地区因Neftochim石化厂以及该地区大量使用杀虫剂和化肥而遭受了相当大的环境破坏--将用来测试一个模型，在该模型中，风险感知和降低风险的意图是风险的两个属性的结果：(1)暴露在风险中的感知，以及(2)风险给个人和社会带来的代价和收益的感知；这些属性受到以下因素的影响：(A)关于潜在风险的知识和信念(即心理模型)，(B)关于个人或团体或组织降低或增加风险的能力的信念，以及(C)风险的不确定性。保加利亚是经济和环境之间的权衡非常突出的国家的一个典型例子。尽管态度的具体情况可能与美国不同，但人们已经发现，风险态度的总体结构与其他国家相似。正如目前美国和国际社会对东欧环境援助的范围所表明的那样，国际社会不希望发展中国家在追求经济增长的过程中忽视环境。这个项目将有助于我们实现这一目标。简而言之，这个项目将调查环境问题、经济因素以及对政治和法律保护的态度之间的相互作用，以提高我们对公民关切的理解，并增强我们平衡环境考虑与其他目标的能力。S u m a r y in f r m a r i on n(++▓--哦？+‘？▒0多个+$H L+，╗D h+R：\WWUSER\TEMPLATE\NORMAL.DOT

The severity of environmental and economic problems in Eastern Europe following the fall of communism in 1989 provides a useful laboratory for examining the relationship between perceptions of environmental risks and economic opportunities. Environmental activism appeared to be a driving force behind economic and political change in Eastern Europe, yet in the mid-1990s environmentalism appeared to have lost considerable political momentum, suggesting that the relationships among environmentalism, economic factors, and political change are more complex than previously thought. This study proposes that the relationship between risk perception and environmental policy is influenced by perceptions of the nature of the environmental problem(s) and economic factors, and by the political and policy context. These influences on risk perception and environmental policy in both developed and transitional societies are poorly understood. In this study, a detailed survey of risk perceptions in a heavily stressed region of Bulgaria -- the Burgas area, which has suffered considerable environmental damage from the Neftochim petrochemical plant, as well as from heavy pesticide and fertilizer use in the area -- will be used to test a model in which perceptions of riskiness and intentions to act to reduce a risk are the result of two attributes of the risk: (1) perceptions of exposure to the risk, and (2) perceptions of costs and benefits to individuals and to society from the hazard; these attributes are moderated by (a) knowledge and beliefs about the hazard underlying the risk (i.e., mental models), (b) beliefs about the ability of individuals or of groups or organizations to reduce or increase the risk, and (c) uncertainty about the risk. Bulgaria is a prime example of countries in which the tradeoffs between the economy and the environment are highly salient. And while specifics of attitudes are likely to differ from, for example, those found in the U.S., the general structure of risk attitudes has been found to be similar to that in other countries. As illustrated by the scope of current U.S. and international environmental aid to Eastern Europe, the global community does not want developing countries to neglect the environment in their pursuit of economic growth. This project will contribute to our ability to accomplish this. In short, this project will investigate the interplay of environmental concerns, economic factors, and attitudes about politics and legal protections in order to improve our understanding of citizens' concerns, and to enhance our ability to balance environmental considerations with other objectives. S u m m a r y I n f o r m a t i o n ( ++++++++++++ 8 Û ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ ++++++++++++ + _ Ûª▓ ÑOh ª' +'ª▒0 Ý + Õ $ H l + ¢ ╗ D h + R:\WWUSER\TEMPLATE\NORMAL.DOT