SBIR Phase I: Risk Consistent Loading Criteria in Regions Influenced by Storm Surge and Hurricane Winds

*9760684维克里这个小型企业创新研究第一阶段项目将使用大规模、经过验证的飓风模拟技术，结合现有的风暴潮模型，开发第一个风险一致的飓风产生的直风和风暴潮综合作用的模型。联邦紧急事务管理局(FEMA)制作的风暴潮分析和由此产生的洪水图没有以统计严格的方式编制，因此，与100年风暴潮相关的真实重现期实际上是未知的。为了评估风暴潮对建筑物的破坏风险，必须将风和风暴潮的共同作用视为内在的耦合，在许多情况下，风暴潮的破坏是由两种风暴潮的组合造成的。该模拟方法使用经过广泛验证的飓风风场，同时确定风速和风暴潮水平，从而产生第一个一致的风速/风暴潮设计标准，从而可以确定风速和风暴潮的年度联合概率分布。这项研究的主要商业应用包括一种新的风险一致性方法，供保险公司评估其真实的总风险。在许多情况下，新的方法可能会为保险公司带来更多的商业机会，减轻联邦政府的一些风险。其他潜在的应用包括公用事业行业，通过这项研究，该行业将能够在沿海地区生产更具成本效益的输电和配电系统设计。***

*** 9760684 Vickery This Small Business Innovation Research Phase I project will use a large scale, validated hurricane simulation technique, coupled with existing storm surge models to develop the first risk consistent modeling of the combined action of direct wind and storm surge produced by hurricanes. The storm surge analysis and resulting flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) were not developed in a statistically rigorous manner, and thus the true return periods associated with the 100 year storm surge is, in fact, not known. To assess the risk of storm damage to structures, the combined action of wind and storm surge must be treated as they are inherently coupled, and damage in many cases is produced by a combination of the two storm perils. The simulation approach simultaneously determines wind speeds and storm surge levels, using an extensively validated hurricane wind field yielding the first consistent wind/surge design criteria thus allowing the annual joint probability distribution of wind speed and storm surge to be determined. A primary commercial application for this research includes a new risk consistent approach for insurance companies to assess their true total risk. The new approach may yield further business opportunities for insurance companies in many cases, relieving the Federal Government of some of its risk. Other potential applications include the utility industry, which with this research will be able to produce more cost effective transmission and distribution system designs in coastal areas. ***