SBIR Phase I: Risk Consistent Modeling of the Combined Action of Hurricane Induced Wind, Wave and Storm Surge Loads on Coastal Structures

9861001 这个小型企业创新研究第一阶段项目将整合一个大规模的，经过验证的飓风模拟技术，一个经过验证的飓风风场模型和一个经过验证的风暴潮模型，再加上现有的WAM波浪模型（WAMDI集团，1988年），以开发风，风暴潮和飓风产生的波浪的综合作用的第一个风险一致的建模。 风暴潮/波浪分析和联邦应急管理局制作的洪水图没有采用严格的统计方法，因此，实际上，与百年一遇洪水位相关的真实重现期是未知的。 为了评估风暴对结构物的破坏风险，必须将风和洪水的联合作用（包括涌浪和波浪爬高）视为固有的耦合作用，并且在许多情况下，破坏是由两种风暴危险的组合产生的。 模拟方法采用了经过广泛验证的风场模型，将确定风速、风暴潮和波浪爬高的同时值，可以对这些值进行分析，以评估与任何单个危险相关的风险或与多个危险的任何组合相关的风险。 这项工作将代表风，风暴潮和波浪作用的联合作用的第一个风险一致的研究。 这项研究的主要商业应用包括一个新的风险一致的方法，保险公司评估他们的真正的总风险。 在许多情况下，新的方法可能会为保险公司带来更多的商业机会，减轻联邦政府的一些风险。 其他潜在的应用包括公用事业行业，这项研究将能够在沿海地区产生更具成本效益的输电和配电系统设计。

9861001 This Small Business Innovation Research Phase I project will integrate a large scale, validated hurricane simulation technique, a validated hurricane wind field model and a validated storm surge model coupled with the existing WAM wave model (The WAMDI Group, 1988) to develop the first risk consistent modeling of the combined action of wind, storm surge and waves produced by hurricanes. The storm surge/wave analysis and resulting flood maps produced by FEMA were not developed in a statistically rigorous manner, and thus the true return periods associated with the 100 year flood level is, in fact, not known. To assess the risk of storm damage to structures, the combined action of wind and flood (including both surge and wave runup) must be treated as they are inherently coupled, and damage in many cases is produced by a combination of the two storm perils. The simulation approach, which employs an extensively validated wind field model, will determine simultaneous values of wind speed, storm surge and wave runup that can be analyzed to assess the risk associated with anyone of the individual perils or the risk associated with any combination of multiple perils. This body of work will represent the first risk consistent study of the combined action of wind, storm surge and wave action. The primary commercial application for this research includes a new risk consistent approach for insurance companies to assess their true total risk. The new approach may yield further business opportunities for insurance companies in many cases, relieving the Federal Government of some of its risk. Other potential applications include the utility industry, who with this research will be able to produce more cost effective transmission and distribution system designs in coastal areas.