A New Approach to Estimate Design Wind Characteristics for Extensive Pressure System Storms

美国非飓风易发地区的设计风速的估计是根据从地面风速计获得的历史风速记录得出的。这些地面风速测量结果受到地形影响、附近的结构和植被、风速计高度随时间的变化以及观测误差的影响。这些测量只在固定的风速观测站进行，并没有第一性原理方法来估计其他地点的风。本研究项目研究了一种利用第一性原理直接分析方法确定广泛压力系统（EPS）风速及其空间变化的创新方法。所提出的方法利用了最近可获得的、价格低廉的美国邻近地区地表压力历史记录数据集。利用这些数据，可以逐小时重建压力场。从重建的压力场中，可以在美国的任何一个地点或多个地点生成梯度高度下的风速和风向的连续记录。该方法消除了困扰地面测量的问题，并提供了一种估计与强、大规模、低压系统通过有关的全区域风险的方法。这是SBIR一期项目。＊＊＊

9361914 Vickery Estimates of design windspeeds in the nonhurricane-prone region of the United States are derived from historical records of windspeeds obtained from surface level anemometers. These surface-level windspeed measurements are subject to errors produced by terrain effects, nearby structures and vegetation, changes in the height of the anemometer over time, and observation errors. These measurements are made only at fixed anemometer stations and there is no first principle method to estimate winds at other locations. This research project investigates an innovative method for determining windspeeds and their spatial variations for extensive pressure systems (EPS) using a first principle direct analysis approach. The proposed methodology makes use of the recently available, and inexpensive, data set of historical records of surface pressures for the contiguous United States. Using this data, the pressure field can be reconstructed on an hour-by-hour basis. From the reconstructed pressure field a continuous record of windspeed and direction at gradient height can be generated at any one location or multiple locations in the United States. The approach eliminates the problems which plague surface- level measurements and provides a means to estimate area- wide risk associated with the passing of intense, large- scale, low pressure systems. This is an SBIR Phase I project. ***