Application of Dynamical Systems to Earthquake Prediction

这项研究是一个项目的延续，该项目的目标是将莫斯科俄罗斯科学院国际地震预测理论和数学地球物理研究所的数学专业知识与俄罗斯关于复杂性的不断发展的物理研究结合起来。莫斯科小组是地震活动统计研究的世界领先者。PI在发现复杂物理系统的新方法方面处于领先地位；特别是应用于区域地震活动的自组织临界性。到目前为止的一些结果包括：1)对该小组以前开发的中期地震预测算法进行了系统的测试，并取得了显著的成功；2)开发了地震机制-地震活动模型，该模型显示了可以用地震数据进行检验的有用特性；以及3)开发了统一的地震危险性方法学模型。未来的工作将继续地震活动性-地震动力学模拟，扩展中期地震预报算法，并在中期预报警报内开发新的短期预报算法。其目的是增进我们对地震力学的理解，改进地震危险性评估，并改进地震预测技术。这项研究是国家减少地震灾害计划的一部分。

9804859TurcotteThis research is a continuation of a project whose goal is to combine the mathematical expertise available at the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, with the evolving physics research in this country on complexity. The Moscow group is a world leader in statistical studies of seismicity. The PI is a leader in the discovery of new approaches to complex physical systems; especially self-organized criticality as applied to regional seismicity. Some of the results thus far include 1) a systematic test of the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithms previously developed by the group with notable successes, 2) development of an earthquake mechanism-seismicity model that exhibits useful properties that can be tested with seismic data, and 3) development of a uniform seismic hazard methodology model. Future work will continue the seismicity-earthquake dynamics modeling, extend the intermediate-term earthquake prediction algorithms, and develop new short-term prediction algorithms within the intermediate-term prediction alarms. The goals are to advance our understanding of earthquake mechanics, improve earthquake hazard assessment, and advance earthquake prediction techniques. This research is a component of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program.