POWRE: Effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events on Food Production Instability in Indonesia: Developing Modelsfor Rice and Shrimp

这项研究旨在衡量与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)相关的气候变化对发展中国家粮食生产稳定性的影响。这项研究将专门针对印尼的稻米和虾的生产；稻米是该国2亿人口的主要主食作物，虾正在成为主要的食品出口商品。印度尼西亚是一个特别值得研究的国家，因为它一直受到ENSO事件的戏剧性影响。这项为期18个月的研究计划由两个独立的部分组成。第一年的研究将主要致力于开发与ENSO气候模型合作的分析和方法工具，并将这些模型的产出纳入粮食生产和价格变异性的经济模型。剩余的6个月资金将用作种子资金，以探索将为印度尼西亚水产养殖虾部门的水稻制定的气候生产变异性分析框架应用于印度尼西亚。关于印度尼西亚水产养殖对虾产量及其易受气候变化影响的脆弱性，发表的数据或研究很少；然而，调查员及其同事的初步实地工作表明，极端降水波动可能是该部门爆发病毒的一个主要原因，这大大降低了整个行业的生产潜力。掌握分析和方法技能以模拟短期气候波动对粮食生产不稳定的影响，对于未来研究集约粮食作物系统的经济和生物可行性、粮食安全以及与发展中国家的贸易、储存和养殖优先事项有关的农业/水产养殖政策非常重要。这项研究将主要侧重于开发将与ENSO有关的气候波动数据转化为与印度尼西亚的经济和政策分析相关的数据的技术；这种技术也开始为发展中世界的其他区域开发，如津巴布韦和几内亚海岸。通过研究两种明显不同的作物系统--水稻和虾--的气候--生产变化联系，目标是建立一个可用于该区域多种作物和水产养殖物种的分析框架，如玉米、大豆、油棕榈、奶鱼和罗非鱼。了解不同系统对气候波动的脆弱性将有助于指导未来农业/水产养殖的研究重点，评估未来与农业和水产养殖有关的土地利用变化，并预测国家、区域和家庭各级的收入不稳定。通过开发上述分析工具，该奖项将使研究人员能够研究在农业和环境经济学领域日益重要的一个新的科学领域。从专业角度来看，这一领域的知识和建模技能的发展将增加调查员的晋升前景和获得学术界终身教职的资格。最后，在赠款期间开发的模型和见解将作为斯坦福大学农业和环境课程的教学工具。

This study aims to measure the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related climate variation on the stability of food production in the developing world. The research will focus specifically on rice and shrimp production in Indonesia; rice is the major staple crop for the country's 200 million people, and shrimp is becoming a leading food export commodity. Indonesia is a particularly interesting country to study because it is consistently and dramatically affected by ENSO events. The eighteen- month research plan consists of two separate components. Research in the first year will be devoted primarily to developing the analytical and methodological tools to work with ENSO climate models and to integrate output from these models into economic models of food production and price variability. The remaining six months of funding will be used as seed money to explore the application of the ENSO climate-production variability framework of analysis developed for rice on the aquaculture shrimp sector in Indonesia. Few published data or studies exist on acquaculture shrimp production and its vulnerability to climate variability in Indonesia; however, preliminary field work by the investigator and her colleagues indicate that extreme precipitation fluctuations may be a leading cause of virus outbreaks in the sector that have substantially reduced the production potential of the industry as a whole. Acquiring the analytical and methodological skills to model the effects of short-run climate fluctuations on food production instability is important for future research on the economic and biological viability of intensive food crop systems, food security, and agriculture/aquaculture policies related to trade, storage, and breeding priorities in developing countries. The research will focus mainly on developing the techniques for translating data on ENSO-related climate fluctuations into data that are relevant for economic and policy analyses in Indonesia; such techniques are also beginning to be developed for other regions of the developing world, such as Zimbabwe and the Guinea Coast. By studying climate-production variability linkages in two markedly different crop systems-rice and shrimp-the goal is to develop a framework of analysis that can be used for a wide diversity of crops and aquaculture species in the region, such as maize, soybeans, oil palm, milk fish, and tilapia. Understanding the vulnerability of different systems to climate fluctuations will be useful in directing agriculture/aquaculture research priorities in the future, for assessing future land-use changes related to agriculture and aquaculture, and for projecting income instability at the national, regional, and household levels. By developing the analytical tools mentioned above, this award will enable the investigator to study a new domain of science that is becoming increasingly important in the fields of agricultural and environmental economics. From a professional perspective, the development of knowledge and modeling skills in this area will enhance the investigator's prospects for promotion and eligibility for a tenure-track position in academia. Finally, the models and insights developed during the grant period will be used as a teaching tool in agricultural and environmental courses at Stanford University.