POWRE: Effects of El Nino-Southern Oscillation Events on Food Production Instability in Indonesia: Developing Modelsfor Rice and Shrimp

POWRE：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动事件对印度尼西亚粮食生产不稳定的影响：开发水稻和虾模型

• 批准号: 9805778
• 负责人: Rosamond Naylor
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: Stanford University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-09-01 至 2000-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9805778&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: POWRE; Effects; El; Nino; Southern

This study aims to measure the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related climate variation on the stability of food production in the developing world. The research will focus specifically on rice and shrimp production in Indonesia; rice is the major staple crop for the country's 200 million people, and shrimp is becoming a leading food export commodity. Indonesia is a particularly interesting country to study because it is consistently and dramatically affected by ENSO events. The eighteen- month research plan consists of two separate components. Research in the first year will be devoted primarily to developing the analytical and methodological tools to work with ENSO climate models and to integrate output from these models into economic models of food production and price variability. The remaining six months of funding will be used as seed money to explore the application of the ENSO climate-production variability framework of analysis developed for rice on the aquaculture shrimp sector in Indonesia. Few published data or studies exist on acquaculture shrimp production and its vulnerability to climate variability in Indonesia; however, preliminary field work by the investigator and her colleagues indicate that extreme precipitation fluctuations may be a leading cause of virus outbreaks in the sector that have substantially reduced the production potential of the industry as a whole. Acquiring the analytical and methodological skills to model the effects of short-run climate fluctuations on food production instability is important for future research on the economic and biological viability of intensive food crop systems, food security, and agriculture/aquaculture policies related to trade, storage, and breeding priorities in developing countries. The research will focus mainly on developing the techniques for translating data on ENSO-related climate fluctuations into data that are relevant for economic and policy analyses in Indonesia; such techniques are also beginning to be developed for other regions of the developing world, such as Zimbabwe and the Guinea Coast. By studying climate-production variability linkages in two markedly different crop systems-rice and shrimp-the goal is to develop a framework of analysis that can be used for a wide diversity of crops and aquaculture species in the region, such as maize, soybeans, oil palm, milk fish, and tilapia. Understanding the vulnerability of different systems to climate fluctuations will be useful in directing agriculture/aquaculture research priorities in the future, for assessing future land-use changes related to agriculture and aquaculture, and for projecting income instability at the national, regional, and household levels. By developing the analytical tools mentioned above, this award will enable the investigator to study a new domain of science that is becoming increasingly important in the fields of agricultural and environmental economics. From a professional perspective, the development of knowledge and modeling skills in this area will enhance the investigator's prospects for promotion and eligibility for a tenure-track position in academia. Finally, the models and insights developed during the grant period will be used as a teaching tool in agricultural and environmental courses at Stanford University.

这项研究的目的是衡量厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）相关的气候变化对发展中国家粮食生产稳定性的影响。 该研究将特别关注印度尼西亚的水稻和虾生产;水稻是该国2亿人口的主要主食作物，虾正在成为主要的粮食出口商品。 印度尼西亚是一个特别值得研究的国家，因为它一直受到ENSO事件的巨大影响。 十八个月的研究计划由两个独立的部分组成. 第一年的研究将主要致力于开发分析和方法工具，以便与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动气候模型合作，并将这些模型的产出纳入粮食生产和价格变动的经济模型。 其余六个月的资金将用作种子资金，以探索将为水稻开发的厄尔尼诺/南方涛动气候-生产变异性分析框架应用于印度尼西亚水产养殖虾部门。 关于印度尼西亚的对虾生产及其对气候变化的脆弱性，几乎没有发表的数据或研究;然而，调查员及其同事的初步实地工作表明，极端的降水波动可能是该部门病毒爆发的主要原因，大大降低了整个行业的生产潜力。 获得分析和方法技能，模拟短期气候波动对粮食生产不稳定性的影响，对于今后研究密集粮食作物系统的经济和生物可行性、粮食安全以及与发展中国家贸易、储存和养殖优先事项有关的农业/水产养殖政策非常重要。 这项研究将主要集中于发展各种技术，将与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动有关的气候波动数据转化为与印度尼西亚的经济和政策分析有关的数据;也正在开始为发展中世界的其他区域，例如津巴布韦和几内亚海岸发展这种技术。 通过研究水稻和虾这两种明显不同的作物系统的气候-生产变异性联系，目标是建立一个分析框架，可用于该地区多种多样的作物和水产养殖物种，如玉米、大豆、油棕、牛奶鱼和罗非鱼。 了解不同系统对气候波动的脆弱性将有助于指导未来农业/水产养殖研究的优先事项，评估未来与农业和水产养殖有关的土地利用变化，并预测国家，区域和家庭层面的收入不稳定性。 通过开发上述分析工具，该奖项将使研究人员能够研究在农业和环境经济学领域变得越来越重要的新科学领域。 从专业的角度来看，在这一领域的知识和建模技能的发展将提高研究人员的晋升前景和资格在学术界的终身职位。 最后，在赠款期间开发的模型和见解将被用作斯坦福大学农业和环境课程的教学工具。