POWRE: Simultaneity in the Timing of Young Women's Non-Martial Homeleaving, Non-Maritial Fertility, and Marriage

该项目旨在通过培训和利用Lee Lillard博士的创新性同时危害模型，为调查人员提供研究和教育增强。 Lillard模型允许多个危险过程联合研究，并明确估计过程之间的两种形式的潜在依赖关系：（1）未观察到的异质性成分之间的相关性和（2）一个过程的过去历史或实际危险对另一个过程的危险的直接影响。 Lillard模型在其灵活的分段线性规范方面也是创新的，该规范用于可能影响危险率的“多个时钟”（例如，婚姻的持续时间，个人的年龄，日历时间）。 一个实质性的应用程序将共同模拟三个过程（非婚离家，非婚生育和婚姻），并解决几个研究问题的过程中离开父母的家以外的婚姻及其关系的其他两个过程。 这些数据包括近4000名非洲裔美国人和白色妇女，她们出生于1938年至1967年，参加了全国家庭和住户调查。 该项目解决了在研究一般年轻妇女，特别是年轻母亲的离家过程方面存在的重大差距，并有可能为决策者提供有关福利政策的信息。 这项研究将审慎地考虑发展的进展，虽然生命跨度和生命过程理论的关键要素，已被相对忽视的医学研究。 此外，该研究增加了文献上的离家过程从静态到动态（事件历史）模型，并占endocardiac american路线的家。 因此，这项工作可以为研究界提供有关近几十年来婚姻和非婚姻路线变化模式的替代解释。 最后，这项研究将大大扩展研究人员自己和其他过去的研究，当年轻母亲住在家里。 该模式考虑到生育时间和发生率的内在差异，对无子女妇女和较早和较晚生育的妇女进行了选择性区分。 因此，可以在这些群体之间进行公平的比较。 此外，通过同时考虑婚姻内外的家庭退出，这项研究将是第一个将关于AFDC对离开父母家的影响的小型文献和关于AFDC对婚姻影响的大型文献结合在一起的研究。 这一教育和研究增强的成果将是巨大的。 调查员的研究涉及应用发展和人口科学，内源性事件过程的联合分析将有助于她在职业生涯中在这些领域的前沿产生知识。 她致力于促进一个特定学科的方法进步的应用程序的另一个学科或专题领域的方法困境。 通过出版这些方法的应用，以及教学作品，她希望促进这种国家的最先进的方法的交叉利用。

This project is designed to provide research and educational enhancement for the investigator through training in and utilization of Dr. Lee Lillard's innovative simultaneous hazards model. The Lillard model allows multiple hazard processes to be jointly studied with two forms of potential dependencies among processes explicitly estimated: (1) correlations among unobserved heterogeneity components and (2) direct effects of the past history or actual hazard of one process on the hazard of another process. The Lillard model is also innovative in its flexible piecewise linear specification for `multiple clocks` that may affect the hazard rate (e.g., duration of marriage, individual's age, calendar time). A substantive application will jointly model three processes (non-marital homeleaving, non-marital fertility, and marriage) and address several research questions regarding the process of leaving the parental home outside of marriage and its relationship to the two other processes. The data include close to 4000 African American and white women who were born between 1938 and 1967 and participated in the National Survey of Families and Households. This project addresses critical gaps in research on the homeleaving process of young women in general and young mothers in particular, and has the potential to inform policymakers regarding welfare policies. The study will regorously consider developmental progressions which, although critical elements of life-span and life-course theories, have been relatively neglected by empiral research. In addition, the research adds to the literature on the leaving home process by moving from static to dynamic (event history) models and by accounting for endogeneity amoung routes out of the home. As such, the work can inform the research community regarding alternative explanations for shifting patterns in marital and non-marital routes out of the home in recent decases. Finally, the study will substantially extend the investigator's own and other past research on when young mothers live at home. By allowing for endogeneity in the timing and occurrence of childbearing, the model accounts for selective distinctions among childless women and earlier and later childbearers. Thus, fair comparisons can be made among these groups. In addition, by simultaneously considering exits from home within and outside of marriage, the study will be the first to pull together the small literature on AFDC effects on leaving the parental home and the larger literature on AFDC effects on marriage. The products of this educational and research enhancement will be substantial. The investigator's research involves the applied developmental and demographic sciences, and the joint analysis of endogenous event processes will be instrumental to her producing knowledge at the forefront of these fields over her career. She is committed to facilitating applications of the methodological advancements of a particular discipline to the methodological quandaries of another discipline or topical area. Through published applications of these methodologies, as well as instructional pieces, she hopes to facilitate the cross-utilization of such state-of-the-art methods.