POWRE: Testing the Power-Conflict Model

POWRE：测试权力冲突模型

• 批准号: 9806123
• 负责人: Kelly Kadera
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: University of Iowa
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1998
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1998-09-01 至 2000-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9806123&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: POWRE; Testing; Power; Conflict; Model

This project's primary objective is to rigorously test deductions derived from an existing formal model using established datasets supplemented with historical information. The investigator will use the New York Times Index and Time Magazine's Almanac of the 20th Century to gather news stories on the conflictual behavior of major powers undergoing power transitions from the mid-19th century to the present. The stories' text will then be transformed to numberical data, using a combination of hand coding and the KEDS content analysis software. The resulting data will then be used to test existing deductions concerning conflict behavior near power transitions. Completion of this project will achieve two purposes. First, it will allow for a rigorous test of deductions from a formal model of the dynamic power-conflict relationship. That model integrates two traditionally competing theories of war--power transition and balance of power--by examining the conditions under which each applies and by developing a more general theory of conflict behavior. The deductions are decidedly distinct from those generated by either traditional theory alone. Second, it will produce a useful dataset for other international conflict scholars. Pre-WWI conflict data is an untapped resource. Researchers interested in other theories of conflict, e.g. the democartic peace, arms races, and escalation dynamics, will also benefit from this collection effort. The information gathered could potentially lay the foundation for a more exhaustive events dataset for the 19th and early 20th centuries. This would be a very positive step toward extending the rich tradition of events data into the more distant past. This award will help further the investigator's career objective of making a significant contribution to the field of international relations. This will help her attain a tenurable record in a field where there are very few women and even fewer tenured women.

该项目的主要目标是严格测试从现有的正式模型使用已建立的数据集与历史信息补充推导。 调查人员将利用《纽约时报索引》和《时代杂志》的《20世纪世纪年鉴》，收集从19世纪世纪中期到现在经历权力过渡的主要大国的冲突行为的新闻报道。 这些故事的文本将被转换为数字数据，使用手工编码和KEDS内容分析软件相结合。 由此产生的数据将被用来测试现有的推理有关冲突行为附近的权力过渡。 这个项目的完成将达到两个目的。 首先，它将允许从动态权力冲突关系的正式模型中进行严格的推理测试。 该模型通过研究各自适用的条件，并通过发展一种更普遍的冲突行为理论，整合了两种传统上相互竞争的战争理论--权力转移和权力平衡。 这些推论与传统理论中的任何一种都截然不同。 其次，它将为其他国际冲突学者提供有用的数据集。 第一次世界大战前的冲突数据是一个未开发的资源。 对其他冲突理论感兴趣的研究人员，例如民主和平，军备竞赛和升级动力学，也将从这一收集工作中受益。 收集的信息可能为19世纪和20世纪初更详尽的事件数据集奠定基础。 这将是一个非常积极的步骤，将丰富的事件数据传统扩展到更遥远的过去。 这一奖项将有助于进一步调查员的职业目标，使国际关系领域的重大贡献。 这将有助于她在一个女性很少、终身女性更少的领域取得终身记录。