Collaborative Research: The Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States

合作研究：美国剥夺重罪犯选举权的政治后果

• 批准号: 9818898
• 负责人: Jeff Manza
• 金额: $ 10.82万
• 依托单位: Northwestern University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-07-01 至 2002-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9818898&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Political; Consequences; Felon

This project will examine the origins, scope, and consequences of felon disenfranchisement in the United States. Our preliminary estimates suggest that 4.6 million voters were disenfranchised in 1996 due to their criminal status, up from less than 500,000 as recently as 1972. The project has three general objectives: (1) Estimate the size of the disenfranchised felon population and model the trends in the size of this group into the future. (2) Assess some of the electoral consequences of disenfranchisement, given that the felon population is drawn disproportionately from the ranks of racial minorities and the poor, and hence is more likely to take votes from Democratic than Republican candidates. (3) Examine the sources of the differences among the states in the treatment of felon voting rights. Methodolgies will include computer simulations, analyses of data from the National Election Study, and state-level turnout information from the Current Population Survey Voting Supplement surveys. Using information about the statutory histories of the different state laws, we will explore the factors producing these different outcomes through a quantitative examination of the timing of changes in policy regimes across all states, and a more detailed case-oriented examination of several states that have recently changed their law. Although legal theorists and policy advocates have examined some aspects of the issue, our investigation will be the first systematic social scientific examination of felon disenfranchisement.

这个项目将研究在美国重罪犯剥夺公民权的起源，范围和后果。我们的初步估计表明，1996年有460万选民因犯罪而被剥夺了选举权，而1972年还不到50万。该项目有三个总体目标：（1）估计被剥夺权利的重罪犯人口的规模，并对该群体未来的规模趋势进行建模。(2)评估剥夺选举权的一些选举后果，因为重罪犯人口不成比例地来自少数民族和穷人，因此更有可能从民主党候选人那里获得选票。(3)审查各州在对待重罪犯投票权方面的差异的来源。方法将包括计算机模拟，从全国选举研究的数据分析，和国家一级的投票率信息，从目前的人口调查投票补充调查。使用有关不同州法律的法定历史的信息，我们将通过对所有州的政策制度变化的时间进行定量检查，以及对最近改变法律的几个州进行更详细的案例导向检查，来探索产生这些不同结果的因素。尽管法律的理论家和政策倡导者已经研究了这个问题的某些方面，但我们的调查将是对重罪犯被剥夺公民权的第一次系统的社会科学检查。