Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Economic Interdependence and Interstate Conflict

政治学博士论文研究：经济相互依存与州际冲突

• 批准号: 9819499
• 负责人: Richard Stoll
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: William Marsh Rice University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-03-15 至 2001-10-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9819499&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

Does economic interdependence based on international trade and finance have pacifying or exacerbating effects on states' conflict behavior - or no effects at all? Recent research yields contradictory inferences; findings seem to depend on the countries and years studied, and the techniques of analysis used. Increasingly, policy makers assert that economic interdependence promotes interstate peace and cooperation. But rarely is a theoretical and empirical justification provided by either policy makers or scholars. This dissertation research provides insight into the domestic and international conditions under which trade and finance affect conflict. The primary mechanism to be studied is the linkage from the economic costs and benefits to particular groups in society to their foreign policy preferences, and their ability to affect states' foreign policy choices. This dissertation research will: (1) provide a more complete conceptualization and operationalization of economic interdependence; (2) construct a theory connecting economic interdependence to interstate conflict (wars, militarized interstate disputes, lower-level forms of conflictual behavior) via a testable, causal process; (3) investigate the domestic economic and political conditions linking international trade and finance to interstate conflict; (4) collect and compile the data necessary to conduct cross-national and longitudinal tests of hypotheses derived from the theory; and (5) statistically analyze and substantively evaluate the performance of the theory while controlling for plausible alternative explanations.

基于国际贸易和金融的经济相互依存是否会对国家的冲突行为产生平息或加剧的影响——或者根本没有影响？ 最近的研究得出了相互矛盾的推论；研究结果似乎取决于研究的国家和年份以及所使用的分析技术。 政策制定者越来越多地断言，经济相互依存促进国家间的和平与合作。 但政策制定者或学者很少提供理论和实证依据。本论文研究深入了解了贸易和金融影响冲突的国内和国际条件。 要研究的主要机制是社会特定群体的经济成本和收益与他们的外交政策偏好以及他们影响国家外交政策选择的能力之间的联系。本论文研究将：（1）提供经济相互依存的更完整的概念化和可操作化； (2) 通过可测试的因果过程构建一种理论，将经济相互依存与国家间冲突（战争、军事化的国家间争端、较低层次的冲突行为）联系起来； (3) 调查将国际贸易和金融与国家间冲突联系起来的国内经济和政治状况； （4）收集和汇编对理论假设进行跨国和纵向检验所需的数据； (5) 统计分析并实质性评估理论的表现，同时控制合理的替代解释。