Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Intervention, Capabilities, Costs, and the Outcome of Civil Wars

政治学博士论文研究：干预、能力、成本和内战的结果

• 批准号: 0001957
• 负责人: Richard Stoll
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: William Marsh Rice University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-07-01 至 2001-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0001957&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

This project investigates the outcome of civil wars: under what conditions do the parties to a civil war choose to end the war by negotiation, and who prevails when negotiations fail. The researcher develops a formal model that holds war termination to be the outcome of rational choices that both sides make by comparing their expected utility from fighting and from negotiation -- including the risk that one's opponent may renege on an agreement. Changes in the military balance, the level of costs suffered by each side, and the level of external intervention determine how a civil war ends. Hypotheses are derived from this game-theoretic model by using a computer program written by the researcher that generates approximate solutions to the game. After further refinement of this formal model, these hypotheses are tested using data from all civil wars fought and terminated from 1816 to 1997. Further research and coding are necessary to measure the military balance and relative casualty levels and final war outcome for some of these wars. In addition to increasing significantly our understanding of how civil wars end, the project provides a common data resource with which others may develop and test theories.

该项目调查内战的结果：内战各方在什么条件下选择通过谈判结束战争，以及谈判失败时谁占上风。 研究人员开发了一个正式模型，认为结束战争是双方通过比较战斗和谈判的预期效用（包括对手可能食言的风险）做出的理性选择的结果。 军事平衡的变化、各方承受的成本水平以及外部干预的程度决定了内战的结束方式。通过使用研究人员编写的计算机程序从该博弈论模型中得出假设，该程序生成博弈的近似解决方案。 在进一步完善这个正式模型后，使用 1816 年至 1997 年期间所有内战的数据对这些假设进行了检验。需要进一步的研究和编码来衡量其中一些战争的军事平衡、相对伤亡水平以及最终战争结果。 除了显着增加我们对内战如何结束的理解之外，该项目还提供了一个公共数据资源，其他人可以用它来开发和测试理论。