US-Turkey Cooperative Research: Development of the Regional Forecast System for the Black Sea and the Data Driven Simulations

该奖项是为了支持哈佛大学工程与应用科学系的Allan R. Robinson博士和土耳其安卡拉中东技术大学海洋科学研究所的Sukru Besiktepe博士的联合项目。该项目旨在发展黑海物理和生物地球化学变化的可操作临近预报和预报能力，并在海上演示实时预报。他们计划建立哈佛海洋预测系统（HOPS）作为“黑海海洋预测系统”（BOPS），并有条不紊地遵循Robinson（1966）和Lozano（1996）所描述的程序。研究计划包括以下任务：建立生物地球化学变量（NO3、NH4、碎屑、浮游植物、浮游动物）的未来模型，设计代表中上层生态系统低营养水平的生态系统模型，利用黑海的一维模型对生态系统模型进行验证和校准，将生化模型与前期研究开发的物理模型进行耦合，初始化和验证耦合的物理-生化模型，准备实时模拟系统；并在船上进行物理和生化变量的预测。范围：该奖项将支持两名具有互补能力和设施的科学家的联合项目，以研究黑海环境监测这一重要课题。物理海洋数据与生物地球化学海洋数据的耦合问题对预测模型的成功与否至关重要，将在本合作项目中讨论。美国方面有专门的海洋物理现象模型，而土耳其方面在黑海物理和环境条件方面具有专业知识，并可以获得最近和当前的数据。该项目完全符合国际项目司的目标。

9906249RobinsonDescription: This award is for the support of a joint project by Dr. Allan R. Robinson, Division of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University and Dr. Sukru Besiktepe, Institute of Marine Sciences at Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey. The project is to develop an operational nowcasting and forecasting capability of physical and biogeochemical variabilities of the Black Sea and to demonstrate the real-time forecast at sea. They plan to set up the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) as a "Black Sea Ocean Prediction System" (BOPS) and methodically follow procedures described by Robinson (1966) and by Lozano (1996). The research plan includes the following tasks: create future model for biogeochemical variables (NO3, NH4, Detritus, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton), design ecosystem model representing lower trophic level of pelagic ecosystem, validate and calibrate ecosystem model using 1-d model of the Black Sea, couple the biochemical model with the physical model developed in previous studies, initialize and validate coupled physical-biochemical model, and prepare a system for real-time simulations, and perform on board forecasting of physical and biochemical variables.Scope: This award will support a joint project by two scientists who have complementary capabilities and facilities to study the important topic of the environmental monitoring of the Black Sea. The problem of coupling physical oceanographic data with biogeochemical oceanographic data is crucial for the success of a forecasting model and will be dealt with in this cooperative project. The US side has special models for physical oceanography phenomena, while the Turkish side has expertise in the Black Sea physical and environmental conditions and access to recent and current data. The project fits well within the objectives of the Division of International Programs.