SGER: Rapid Response to Natural Disturbance: Development of an Empirically-Based, Spatially-Explicit Model of the Effects of Hurricanes on Tropical Forests

Canham9906713空间显式森林模型已成功地用于几个温带森林。一些这样的模型，如Toutie，已经成功地捕捉到了森林发展的几个现实特征，并被广泛接受为现实。到目前为止，这些类型的模型仅在非常有限的程度上适用于热带生境中发育的复杂森林。1998年9月，飓风乔治袭击了波多黎各的森林，造成了毁灭性的影响。这场风暴是在过去10年袭击该岛的其他飓风之后发生的。飓风乔治的破坏性影响有一个优势，可以为波多黎各森林开发一个类似突击的模型。它们提供了将该模型直接应用于自然干扰后立即发展热带森林的机会。该项目需要SGER时间表，因为它将收集应用模型所需的初始现场数据，这些数据必须在快速发展的热带生态系统的扰动后立即收集。该模型将用于通过检验基于经验的热带森林对飓风反应的预测，解决关于反复发生的飓风对热带森林物种多样性、群落动态以及生态系统结构和功能的影响的一系列假设。

Canham9906713Spatially-explicit forest models have been successfully developed for several temperate forests. Some such models, such as SORTIE, have been successful at capturing several realistic features of forest development and have been widely accepted as realistic. Until now, these types of models have been applied to the complex forests that develop in Tropical habitats to only a very limited extent.Hurricane Georges struck forests on Puerto Rico with devastating effects in September 1998. This storm followed other hurricanes that struck the island during the past 10 years. The devastating effects of Hurricane Georges have one advantage for developing a SORTIE-like model for the Puerto Rico forest. They provide an opportunity to apply the model directly to the development of a tropical forest immediately following its natural disturbance. This project requires a SGER timeline because it will collect the initial field data necessary for the application of the model, data that must be collected immediately following a disturbance in a rapidly developing tropical ecosystem. The model will be used to address a broad suite of hypotheses on the effects of recurrent hurricanes on species diversity, community dynamics, and ecosystem structure and function in tropical forests by testing empirically based prediction on the responses of tropical forests to hurricanes.