Transient Dynamics of Ecosystems

neubert / caswell生态系统的瞬态动力学生态系统受到各种自然和人为的扰动。例如，考虑一个湖。在短时间内，暴雨可能会暂时增加湖中的营养物质，产生短暂的藻华。在更长的时间尺度上，酸雨可能会造成湖中动物群的永久性变化，包括物种灭绝的可能性。生态系统对扰动的反应可能对人类健康或经济产生重要影响。生态学家和数学家已经发展出一种理论来帮助他们预测生态系统对扰动的反应。虽然这个理论很有用，但它有两个主要缺点。首先，它的预测只有在扰动发生后很长一段时间内才被认为是正确的。其次，它假设在扰动之前生态系统处于平衡状态，也就是说，它假设生态系统的任何组成部分都不会随时间而改变。该项目的研究人员将提出一种理论来纠正这两个问题。该理论将关注生态系统对扰动的短期反应，并将纳入非平衡系统。这项研究的结果将对从事从生物多样性保护到全球气候变化以及陆地和水生系统的广泛问题的生态系统科学家有用。

Abstract99-73518Neubert/CaswellTransient dynamics of ecosystemsEcological systems are subject to a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. For example, consider a lake. On a short time scale, a rainstorm may temporarily increase the amount of nutrients in the lake, producing a brief algal bloom. On a longer time scale, acid rain might produce a permanent shift in the lake's fauna, including the possibility of species extinctions. The reaction of an ecosystem to a perturbation can have important human health or economic consequences. Ecologists and mathematicians have developed a theory to help them predict how ecosystems will respond to perturbations. While this theory has been useful, it has two principle shortcomings. First, its predictions are only expected to be correct a long time after the perturbation occurs. Second, it assumes that before the perturbation the ecosystem was in equilibrium, i.e., it assumes that none of the ecosystem's components are changing over time. The investigators on this project will develop a theory that corrects these two problems. This theory will focus on the short-term responses of ecosystems to perturbations and will incorporate non-equilibrium systems. The results of this study will be useful to ecosystem scientists working on a wide range of problems from conservation of biodiversity to global climate change, and in both terrestrial and aquatic systems.