Transient Dynamics of Ecosystems

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Abstract99-73518Neubert/CaswellTransient dynamics of ecosystemsEcological systems are subject to a wide variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. For example, consider a lake. On a short time scale, a rainstorm may temporarily increase the amount of nutrients in the lake, producing a brief algal bloom. On a longer time scale, acid rain might produce a permanent shift in the lake's fauna, including the possibility of species extinctions. The reaction of an ecosystem to a perturbation can have important human health or economic consequences. Ecologists and mathematicians have developed a theory to help them predict how ecosystems will respond to perturbations. While this theory has been useful, it has two principle shortcomings. First, its predictions are only expected to be correct a long time after the perturbation occurs. Second, it assumes that before the perturbation the ecosystem was in equilibrium, i.e., it assumes that none of the ecosystem's components are changing over time. The investigators on this project will develop a theory that corrects these two problems. This theory will focus on the short-term responses of ecosystems to perturbations and will incorporate non-equilibrium systems. The results of this study will be useful to ecosystem scientists working on a wide range of problems from conservation of biodiversity to global climate change, and in both terrestrial and aquatic systems.