Collecting and Utilizing Gubernatorial Approval Ratings

在理解公众对政府首脑(或在一些国家中是执政党)表现的认可方面，已经取得了相当大的进展。在美国和其他一些国家，“受欢迎程度”调查每月进行一次，如果不是更频繁的话，为对公众批准的性质、原因和后果进行时间序列分析提供了足够的数据。然而，尽管民调机构自20世纪50年代以来一直在零星地询问州长的表现，而且自80年代中期以来一直相当频繁地询问州长的表现，但一组极好的测试场所--美国50个州--并未被利用。州长的批准在研究文献中并未完全被忽视。然而，在这一点上，在大范围的州测试州长受欢迎的模式的尝试还处于初级阶段，还有很多工作要做。同样，州选举模型可以通过纳入州长支持率来重新制定和重新测试，也可以测试目前无法估量的模型。州长批准数据一直未得到充分利用的主要原因是，没有这些数据的全面档案。然而，其中一位PI已经有了一个很好的开端，收集了所有50个州的州长支持率，总共超过1500个支持率。目前，资金将填补空白，以确定是否有更多的民意调查结果；如果有，则获取这些结果；创建一个综合的州长批准数据文件；以及举行一次以州长批准研究为重点的会议。询问早期民调也很重要，特别是1980年代以前的民调。同样重要的是建立一个或多或少自动获得未来民调结果的机制。最后，数据收集目前只存在于纸面上。数据和会议将对至少两个领域的工作作出贡献。首先，他们将加强对行政批准以及批准与选举之间的关系的了解。其次，他们将对州政治的研究做出贡献，在州政治研究中，某些形式的研究，如州长批准，一直局限于对一个或少数州的研究。最后，有必要指出的是，如果没有所提议的努力，要存档的数据不太可能无限期保存；如果现在不收集，数据将无法挽回地丢失。

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the public approval of the performance of the head of government (or, in some countries, the governing party). In the United States and some other countries, "popularity" polls are conducted monthly, if not more often, yielding sufficient data for time-series analyses of the properties, causes, and consequences of public approval. Yet a superb set of testing sites for understanding this aspect of executive politics, the 50 American states, is not being utilized, even though pollsters have been inquiring about gubernatorial performance sporadically since the 1950s and fairly regularly since the mid-1980s.Gubernatorial approval has not been totally ignored in the research literature. At this point, though, attempts to test models of gubernatorial popularity across a large cross-section of states are in their infancy, and much remains to be done. Likewise, state election models could well be reformulated and retested by incorporating gubernatorial approval rates, and models could be tested that are currently inestimable.The primary reason why data on gubernatorial approval has been underutilized is that no comprehensive file of these data has been available. However, one of the PIs has made an excellent start by assembling gubernatorial approval ratings for all 50 states, more that 1500 ratings in all. Funding, at present, will fill in gaps to determine whether additional poll results are available; if so, to access them; to create an integrated gubernatorial approval data file; and to hold a conference focused on gubernatorial approval research.To accomplish these goals, it is necessary to contact as many as 50 polling organizations. It is also important to inquire about early polls, especially those from periods prior to the 1980s. No less important is to establish a more or less automatic mechanism for obtaining future poll results. Finally, the data collection currently exists on paper. Support is provided to develop this into a system appropriate for electronic storage.The data and conference will contribute to work in at least tow areas. First, they will enhance understanding of executive approval and the relationship between approval and elections. Second, they will contribute to the study of state politics, where some forms of research, such as on gubernatorial approval, have been limited to the study of one or a small number of states. Finally, it is relevant to note that the data to be archived are unlikely to be maintained indefinitely in the absence of an effort such as that proposed; if not collected now, the data would be irretrievably lost.