Modeling Host-Parasite Systems

宿主-寄生虫系统建模

• 批准号: 9974389
• 负责人: Zhilan Feng
• 金额: $ 22.1万
• 依托单位: Purdue Research Foundation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1999-08-15 至 2003-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9974389&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modeling; Host; Parasite; Systems

Feng9974389 The investigators and her colleagues study and analyze thecomplex interactions between parasitic trematodes and theirinvertebrate and vertebrate hosts by developing mathematicalmodels that allow the prediction of changes in the populationdynamics of both hosts and parasites. Continuous deterministicmodels based on systems of differential equations are proposedand analyzed using the theory of dynamical systems and integraland differential equations. Data gathered for the validation ofthe models is fitted using standard statistical techniques.Validation of the simpler initial models is done by taking theprevalence values of infection of human hosts at two or morepoints in time, and estimating prevalence of infection at otherpoints in time for which data is available. A collaborative study is undertaken that combines thetheoretical and empirical experience of a parasitologist and themodeling and theoretical expertise of mathematicians toinvestigate models of host-parasite interactions. The scope ofthis project is threefold: *First, to model host-parasite interactions, withincreasingly complex models motivated by biologicalconsiderations; *second, the study of mathematical properties of each modeland their biological and ecological implications such aspopulation control or potential species extinction; *third, the validation of the models through comparison ofmodel results with field data. This project significantlyadvances our knowledge and understanding of the dynamics ofhost-parasite systems, by providing usable models to studynatural systems, by analyzing their sensitivity to the parametersaffecting their dynamics, and by allowing the structuring of thecomplexities of the systems into hierarchies. A specific exampleis the determination of the proportion of cases ofschistosomiasis that need to be treated for the disease to beeradicated, as well as the effect of drug-induced parasitemutation and the existence of more than one species of definitivehosts on the dynamics of transmission of this ailment. Just asimportant is the possibility of extending the models developed inthis project to more complex systems involving three or morespecies, or stochastic environmental variability.

冯9974389 研究人员和她的同事们通过开发能够预测宿主和寄生虫种群动态变化的寄生虫模型，研究和分析寄生吸虫与它们的无脊椎动物和脊椎动物宿主之间复杂的相互作用。 利用动力系统和积分微分方程理论，提出并分析了基于微分方程组的连续确定性模型。 为验证模型而收集的数据是用标准统计技术拟合的，简单的初始模型的验证是通过在两个或多个时间点获取人类宿主感染的流行率值，并在其他有数据的时间点估计感染的流行率来完成的。 一个合作研究进行，结合理论和经验的寄生虫学家和themodeling和数学家的理论专长，以调查模型的主机-寄生虫相互作用。 该项目的范围有三个方面： * 第一，建立宿主-寄生虫相互作用模型，其中越来越复杂的模型是出于生物学考虑; * 第二，研究每个模型的数学性质及其在生物和生态方面的影响，例如种群控制或潜在的物种灭绝; * 第三，通过将模型结果与现场数据进行比较，验证模型。 该项目通过提供研究自然系统的可用模型，通过分析它们对影响其动态的参数的敏感性，以及通过允许将系统的复杂性结构化为层次结构，显著地推进了我们对宿主-寄生虫系统的动态的知识和理解。 一个具体的例子是确定为根除这种疾病而需要治疗的血吸虫病病例的比例，以及药物诱导的寄生虫突变和存在一种以上的确定宿主对这种疾病传播动力学的影响。 只是一个重要的是扩展的可能性，在这个项目中开发的模型更复杂的系统，涉及三个或更多的物种，或随机环境变化。