CAREER: Time-Critical Applications of Nonparametric Regression: Harnessing the Power of Information Technology for Infrastructure Systems Management

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Brian L. SmithUniversity of VirginiaDepartment of Civil EngineeringProposal Number 9984149Time-Critical Applications of Nonparametric Regression: Harnessing the Power of Information Technology for Infrastructure Management SystemsAs greater demands are placed on infrastructure systems, civil engineers are being called upon to develop management systems to enable the efficient use of infrastructure capacity. Advances in information technology allow infrastructure management systems to collect large quantities of data describing the state of the system. Currently, this data is used to develop management strategies that react to current conditions. However, it is desirable to develop proactive strategies based on forecasted demand for service. Nonparametric regression models have high potential to support demand forecasting. The premise of nonparametric regression is that by searching a database of past experiences, one can find cases that are similar to the current state of the system. Then, these past cases can be used to predict the future system state. Unfortunately, the complexity of searching a large database is so great that nonparametric regression may be unable to meet the time requirements of infrastructure management systems. The purpose of this effort is to address the search complexity of nonparametric regression, making it a viable tool for infrastructure management demand forecasting.The research will focus on data management, data structure, and advanced computing approaches. Data management will be considered to attempt to intelligently prune records of the database without unacceptably degrading the accuracy of the model. Data structures will be investigated that will reduce search complexity through sorting/storing the data in innovative ways. Advanced computing technologies, particularly distributed computing, will also be explored. The education effort will focus on preparing civil engineers to effectively apply information technology, a critical infrastructure management requirement. Materials will be developed to strengthen information technology education in the civil engineering curriculum, students will work on interdisciplinary teams, steps will be taken to attract and retain underrepresented groups, and web-based educational materials will be developed.