Marine Isotope Stage 11 in the eastern Mediterranean Sea: Nearest analog to the present day?

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Marine isotopic Stage 11 (MIS11), some 400,000 years ago, provides the closest analog to the Holocene in terms of the configuration of the Earth s orbit around the Sun and the resulting strength and variability of solar insolation. Understanding the climate of MIS11 will thus aid in assessment of human impact on global climate and of the future of the present warm period. The Mediterranean acts as an amplifier of climate signals, responding to forcing from both the North, via the North Atlantic Oscillation and from the South, through shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. This unique potential of the region to record different facets of MIS11 climate has never been explored. In this project, we will generate the first high-resolution multi-proxy records from eastern Mediterranean OOP cores, reconstructing the hydrography, climate and ecosystems of the region across the MIS11. We specifically aim to study the pattern of climate fluctuation during MIS11 as an analog of what might have been expected during the Holocene (MIS1) without human overprint. We will also determine when and how this Holocene-like interglacial ended and whether the plunge into a new ice age could have been predicted from precursor signals or events. Our results will help in evaluating scenarios of future climate change in this densely populated region, with obvious benefits to society in Mediterranean countries.