Metapopulation Models and Control of Tuberculosis in African Buffalo

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The goal of this study is to develop a general theory of the spread and maintenance of communicable diseases in spatially heterogeneous populations. The theory will be developed and tested in the context of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo population in the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, as well as the spill-over of this disease to cattle and humans living on the boundaries of KNP. The study involves collecting BTB prevalence and strain data from sputum and blood samples taken from immobilized buffalo, some of which will be marked and collared for radio tracking studies of the movement of individuals between herds and the movement of herds over the landscape. The data will be incorporated into a spatially explicit and ecologically detailed predictive model that will then used to test theory and evaluate management alternatives such as vaccination, removal of infected individuals, and the maintenance of different strains of the diseases under particular treatment regimes. The study will provide further insights into tuberculosis, which is a serious problem in humans that is exacerbated by the current AIDS epidemic in Africa and the emergence of drug resistant strains. It will also provide insights into factors controlling the spread of other communicable diseases such as HIV itself.