Metapopulation Models and Control of Tuberculosis in African Buffalo

非洲水牛的种群模型和结核病控制

• 批准号: 0090323
• 负责人: Wayne Getz
• 金额: $ 181.21万
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-09-15 至 2007-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0090323&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Metapopulation; Models; Control; Tuberculosis; African

The goal of this study is to develop a general theory of the spread and maintenance of communicable diseases in spatially heterogeneous populations. The theory will be developed and tested in the context of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo population in the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, as well as the spill-over of this disease to cattle and humans living on the boundaries of KNP. The study involves collecting BTB prevalence and strain data from sputum and blood samples taken from immobilized buffalo, some of which will be marked and collared for radio tracking studies of the movement of individuals between herds and the movement of herds over the landscape. The data will be incorporated into a spatially explicit and ecologically detailed predictive model that will then used to test theory and evaluate management alternatives such as vaccination, removal of infected individuals, and the maintenance of different strains of the diseases under particular treatment regimes. The study will provide further insights into tuberculosis, which is a serious problem in humans that is exacerbated by the current AIDS epidemic in Africa and the emergence of drug resistant strains. It will also provide insights into factors controlling the spread of other communicable diseases such as HIV itself.

本研究的目的是发展传染病在空间异质性人群中传播和维持的一般理论。该理论将在南非克鲁格国家公园（KNP）的非洲水牛种群中的牛结核病（BTB）以及这种疾病对生活在KNP边界上的牛和人类的溢出的背景下得到发展和测试。这项研究包括从固定野牛的痰和血液样本中收集BTB流行率和菌株数据，其中一些将被标记和项圈用于无线电跟踪研究个体在群体之间的运动和群体在景观上的运动。这些数据将被纳入一个空间明确和生态详细的预测模型，然后用于检验理论和评价管理备选方案，如接种疫苗、清除受感染个体和在特定治疗制度下维持不同的疾病菌株。这项研究将为结核病提供进一步的见解，结核病是人类的一个严重问题，目前艾滋病在非洲的流行和耐药菌株的出现加剧了这一问题。它还将提供对控制其他传染病（如艾滋病毒本身）传播的因素的见解。