Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

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The project will improve our understanding of the evolution and predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). MJO is a key component of intra-seasonal variability, and plays a significant role in modulating the circulation and precipitation variability in the global tropics and the mid-latitude Pacific/North American region. MJO also influences the Asian-Australian summer monsoons and possibly even El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, thereby extending its impact on major climate systems. MJO remains a notable and somewhat intractable simulation deficiency in extant general circulation models, and one in need of an urgent fix in view of its substantial impact on both weather and climate. Drs. Duane Waliser (SUNY, Stony Brook) and Charles Jones (Univ. of California, Santa Barbara) will collaboratively investigate the extent of ocean's influence on MJO evolution from modeling experiments with a thermally and dynamically responsive ocean model. They will also estimate the limit of forecast predictability of the MJO and its implications for medium-to-extended range weather prediction and intraseasonal-to-interannual climate variability using the NASA/GSFC and NOAA/GFDL general circulation models. Dr. William Lau of NASA/GSFC and William Stern of NOAA/GFDL will be collaborating on some of the project tasks.