Collaborative Research: The Nature and Predictability of the Madden and Julian Oscillation in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System

合作研究：海洋-大气耦合系统中马登和朱利安振荡的性质和可预测性

• 批准号: 0094416
• 负责人: Duane Waliser
• 金额: $ 25.55万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Stony Brook
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2001
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2001-07-15 至 2005-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0094416&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Nature; Predictability; Madden

The project will improve our understanding of the evolution and predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). MJO is a key component of intra-seasonal variability, and plays a significant role in modulating the circulation and precipitation variability in the global tropics and the mid-latitude Pacific/North American region. MJO also influences the Asian-Australian summer monsoons and possibly even El Nino--Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, thereby extending its impact on major climate systems. MJO remains a notable and somewhat intractable simulation deficiency in extant general circulation models, and one in need of an urgent fix in view of its substantial impact on both weather and climate. Drs. Duane Waliser (SUNY, Stony Brook) and Charles Jones (Univ. of California, Santa Barbara) will collaboratively investigate the extent of ocean's influence on MJO evolution from modeling experiments with a thermally and dynamically responsive ocean model. They will also estimate the limit of forecast predictability of the MJO and its implications for medium-to-extended range weather prediction and intraseasonal-to-interannual climate variability using the NASA/GSFC and NOAA/GFDL general circulation models. Dr. William Lau of NASA/GSFC and William Stern of NOAA/GFDL will be collaborating on some of the project tasks.

该项目将提高我们对马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）的演变和可预测性的理解。MJO是季节内变率的一个重要组成部分，在调节全球热带和中纬度太平洋/北美地区的环流和降水变率方面起着重要作用。MJO还影响亚洲-澳大利亚夏季季风，甚至可能影响厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）变率，从而扩大其对主要气候系统的影响。MJO仍然是现存大气环流模式中一个值得注意的和有点棘手的模拟缺陷，鉴于其对天气和气候的重大影响，需要紧急修复。Duane Waliser博士（纽约州立大学，斯托尼布鲁克）和Charles Jones博士（加州大学，圣巴巴拉）将合作研究海洋对MJO演变的影响程度，通过热响应和动力响应海洋模型进行建模实验。他们还将使用NASA/GSFC和NOAA/GFDL大气环流模型估计MJO的预测可预测性极限及其对中期至长期天气预报和季节内至年际气候变率的影响。NASA/GSFC的William Lau博士和NOAA/GFDL的William Stern将在一些项目任务上进行合作。