The Macroeconomic Effects of New Deal Policies

本项目继续使用定量、动态、一般均衡模型研究新政劳工和产业政策的宏观经济影响。美国经济在1933年经济大萧条后的很长一段时间里一直处于严重的低迷状态。1939年，每个成年人的工作时间比1929年的水平低22%左右，1939年的实际国民生产总值比1929年的趋势调整水平低26%左右。这种缓慢的复苏长期困扰着经济学家；1933年后，经济经历了几次积极的冲击，本应促进健康的复苏。生产率和货币供应量在1933年之后都迅速增长，银行恐慌和通货紧缩在1933年结束，这被认为是1933年之前主要的令人沮丧的冲击。一些经济学家，包括罗伯特·卢卡斯（Robert Lucas）、米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）和阿门·阿尔奇安（Armen Alchian），认为新政政策，如提高物价和工资的《国家工业复苏法案》（NIRA）和《国家劳资关系法案》（NLRA），可能是造成大萧条持续的一个重要因素。这项研究是与明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的哈罗德·科尔（Harold Cole）合作进行的，目的是首次使用一个貌似合理的参数化动态一般均衡模型，定量评估这些政策在20世纪30年代和40年代对美国的宏观经济影响。这项研究结合了政策对工资和价格影响的详细实证文件，以及捕捉这些政策主要特征的新定量理论的发展。这些数据表明，新政政策在经济中造成了严重的内外部摩擦。动态一般均衡宏观经济模型的关键创新在于将工人和企业之间的动态议价博弈纳入模型。模型经济的均衡路径是在1934年至1939年间计算出来的，并与美国经济的实际时间路径进行比较。基准模型的一个貌似合理的参数化版本表明，新政政策是造成大萧条持续的一个重要因素。特别是模型经济在1934 - 1939年间的均衡路径预测与实际数据非常相似；该模型预测，部分复苏将从1934年开始，并在此后不久停滞，使产出比正常水平低14%左右。本课题还对基本分析进行了理论和实证的拓展。一种扩展允许“特定行业”的资本，这造成了一个“拖延”问题，即劳动力可以将部分回报用于实物投资。这使得该模型能够捕捉到20世纪30年代劳资/企业谈判的更多方面，也丰富了模型，使其可以更广泛地应用于工会、拖延问题和欧洲内部/外部摩擦的一般均衡研究。另一个扩展允许政策效果的时间变化。基线模型将政策视为来自单一政权。1937年，劳工的议价能力有所提高，随后是二战期间新政政策的全面逆转。对这些政策变化进行建模，使研究人员能够研究政策变化如何导致这一时期的两个关键波动：1938年的经济衰退和第二次世界大战的经济繁荣。

This project continues research on the macroeconomic effects of New Deal labor and industrial policies using quantitative, dynamic, general equilibrium models. The U.S. economy remained substantially depressed long after the trough of the Great Depression in 1933. Hours worked per adult in 1939 were about 22 percent below its 1929 level, and real GNP in 1939 was about 26 percent below its trend-adjusted 1929 level. This slow recovery has long puzzled economists; the economy experienced several positive shocks after 1933 that should have fostered a healthy recovery. Productivity and the money supply both grew rapidly after 1933, and banking panics and deflation, which are considered to be major depressing shocks between before1933, ended in 1933. Some economists, including Robert Lucas, Milton Friedman, and Armen Alchian, have suggested that New Deal policies, such as the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) and the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA), which raised prices and wages, may have been an important contributing factor to the persistence of the Depression. The goal of the research, which is joint with Harold Cole of the Minneapolis Fed, is to quantitatively evaluate for the first time the macroeconomic impact of these policies on the U.S. in the 1930s and 1940s using a plausibly parameterized dynamic, general equilibrium model. The research combines detailed empirical documentation of the effects of policies on wages and prices, and the development of new quantitative theory that captures the main features of these policies. These data suggest that New Deal policies created a significant insider-outsider friction in the economy. The key innovation in the dynamic general equilibrium macroeconomic model is incorporating a dynamic bargaining game between workers and firms in the model. The equilibrium path of the model economy is computed between 1934 and 1939, and is compared to the actual time path of the U.S. economy. A plausibly parameterized version of the benchmark model indicates that New Deal policies were an important contributing factor to the persistence of the Depression. In particular, the predicted equilibrium path of the model economy between 1934 and 1939 is quite similar to that in the data; the model predicts a partial recovery beginning in 1934, and also predicts that the recovery stalls shortly afterwards, leaving output about 14 percent below its normal level.The project also makes theoretical and empirical extensions of the basic analysis. One extension allows for "industry-specific" capital that creates a "hold-up" problem in that labor can appropriate some of the returns to physical investment. This allows the model to capture more aspects of 1930s labor/firm bargaining, and also enriches the model so it can be applied more broadly to general equilibrium studies of unions, hold-up problems, and European insider/outsider frictions. Another extension allows for time variation in the effects of policy. The baseline model treats policy as coming from a single regime. Labor bargaining power increased in 1937, which was followed by a general reversal of New Deal policies during World War II. Modeling these shifts in policy allows the investigators to examine how policy variation contributed to two key fluctuations during this period: the Recession of 1938, and the economic boom of World War II.