A Real Options Approach to Forecast Generation Adequacy in Competitive Electric Power Industry

这笔赠款提供资金，用于开发一种方法，研究在竞争激烈的电力市场中的长期产能投资。其目的是研究发电充裕度与市场中许多复杂因素的关系，如负荷增长、市场机制、发电机组的成本特征和物理限制、环境政策和竞争。具体地说，将有三个主要目标：(1)开发基于实物期权的长期发电资产评估工具，并将其用于评估产能投资决策。(2)开发理论结果来确定“最优扩能”，包括投资时机、发电机的类型和规模，以及在一个明确的、放松管制的环境中。(3)建立了模拟竞争性电力行业发电容量扩张过程的模型--模拟竞争性电力行业发电容量扩张过程的模型，并利用该模型研究容量扩张相关问题，预测发电充裕度和电价走势。如果成功，在一个明确的市场环境下，该模型将被用来预测未来每个时间段的电价和系统容量的概率分布以及停电的概率。这一预测模型将有助于发现与发电充裕度相关的不可预见的问题，并作为一个早期预警系统。

This grant provides funding for developing a methodology to study long-term capacity investment in a competitive electric market. The objective is to study generation adequacy in relationship to the many complex factors in markets, such as load growth, market mechanisms, cost characteristics and physical limits of generating units, environmental policies, and competition. Specifically, three main goals will be targeted: (1) Develop a real-options based, long-term generation asset valuation tool, and use it to evaluate capacity investment decisions. (2) Develop theoretic results to define the "optimal capacity expansion," including the investment timing and the generator's type and size in a well-defined, deregulated environment. (3) Develop a model that simulates generation capacity expansion process in the competitive electric power a model that simulates generation capacity expansion process in the competitive electric power industry, and use the model to study capacity expansion related problems, and forecast generation adequacy and electricity price trend. If successful, given a well-defined market environment, the model will be used to forecast the probability distributions for electricity price and system capacity at each future time period and the probability of blackouts as well. This forecasting model will help to detect unforeseeable problems related to generation adequacy, and to serve as an early warning system.