Organizational Size and the Logic of Economic Development: An Analysis of Brazilian Personal Services

德州农工大学这个项目是对巴西经济发展的社会和政治决定因素的分析。目前关于经济发展的社会学著作被错误地指定了，因为它没有考虑到小公司和大公司增长决定因素之间的差异。小企业代表了第三世界国家就业的绝大多数，但很少受到学术关注。假设国家干预和微型企业增长之间的关系不遵循传统模式，因为a)小企业对国家政府几乎没有影响力，b)政府根据大企业的优先顺序制定政策--对小企业产生计划外但有后果的影响。该项目考虑了巴西三个行业的州一级就业情况：餐馆、理发店/美容店和酒店。这三个行业都涉及个人服务；然而，餐馆和理发店的平均公司规模很小，而酒店规模很大，受到连锁和跨国公司所有的影响。已经收集和分析了巴西人口普查的数据，以建立这些部门就业的计量经济学模型。该模型允许对市场规模等经济因素进行统计控制，并估计租金、税收和工资等关键成本的作用。计量经济学模型的残差被用来确定扣除市场因素后服务业活动水平异常高或低的一组国家。国家科学基金会的资金将用于支持一年的实地工作，以便能够以这种方式对选定的案例进行定性调查。首席调查员将对东北部的三个州进行持续的对比。其中之一，塞尔吉佩，理发店/美容店的就业率非常高，自1940年以来一直保持这一水平。第一个是巴伊亚，在20世纪70年代的S时期看到了服务业活动的复苏。第三个是阿拉戈斯，在所有方面都是平均的。这项研究还将对其他州的剩余就业情况进行较小规模的分析。其中包括：a)两个人为“规划”的首府坎波格兰德和巴西利亚服务业就业水平的高低形成对比；b)巴西两个主要大都市(圣保罗和里约热内卢)服务业就业下降缓慢；c)南里奥格兰德州原本繁荣的服务业就业明显减少。对商人和政策制定者的采访将与相关文献和档案资料来源相结合。定性田野调查的方法将类似于关于巴西经济发展的标准社会学著作，如彼得·埃文斯的著作。然而，这项研究可以将这些发现与时间序列横截面分析的计量经济学结果联系起来，提供对现场观察到的现象影响的更严格测试。定量和定性分析检验了新古典经济学、正统国家主导的发展文学、政治经济学、新网络经济社会学、非正规经济文学和民族飞地文学等理论。然而，该项目的一个目标是超越这些理论，产生一种新的类似决策理论的账户，强调为其他目的设计的政策的意想不到的发展后果。

SES- 0111456Samuel CohnTexas A&M University This project is an analysis of the social and political determinants of economic development in Brazil. Current sociological writing on economic development is mis-specified because it fails to account for differences between the determinants of growth for small and large firms. Small firms represent the vast majority of employment in third world nations but receive very little scholarly attention. It is hypothesized that the relationship between state intervention and the growth of microenterprise does not follow traditional models because a) small firms have little influence on national governments and b) governments set policies based on the priority of large firms - producing effects on small firms that are unplanned but consequential. The project considers state-year level variation in employment in three Brazilian industries: restaurants, barber/beauty shops and hotels. All three industries involve personal service; however, restaurants and barber/shops have very low average firm size, while hotels are large and subject to chain and multinational ownership. Data from the Brazilian census has already been collected and analyzed to develop an econometric model of employment in these sectors. This model allows for the statistical control of economic factors such as market size, and the estimation of the role of key costs such as rent, taxes and wages. The residuals from the econometric model have been used to identify a set of states with unusually high or low levels of service sector activity net of market factors. National Science Foundation funds will be used to support a year of fieldwork to allow for qualitative investigation of the cases selected in this manner. The principal investigator will perform a sustained contrast of three northeastern states. One, Sergipe, has an extraordinarily high level of employment n barber/beauty shops, and has maintained this level since 1940. One, Bahia, saw a resurgence of service sector activity in the 1970's. The third, Alagoas, is average in all respects. The study will also do smaller analyses of residual employment in other states. These include a) contrasting high and low levels of service employment in two artificially-created "planned" capitols, Campo Grande and Brasilia, b) the slow decline of services in both of Brazil's major metropoli (Sdo Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), and c) the marked decline in residual service employment in otherwise prosperous Rio Grande do Sul. Interviews of businessmen and policy makers will be combined with relevant documentary and archival sources. The methodology of the qualitative fieldwork will resemble that standard sociological works on Brazilian economic development such as those of Peter Evans. However, this study can link those findings to econometric results from a time-series cross-section analysis providing more rigorous tests of the impacts of the phenomena observed in the field. The quantitative and qualitative analysis tests theories drawn from neoclassical economics, the orthodox state-led development literature, political economy, the new network-based economic sociology, the informal economy literature and the ethnic enclave literature. A goal of the project however is to go beyond these theories and produce a new decision-theory-like account that emphasizes the unanticipated developmental consequences of policies designed for other purposes.