Organizational Size and the Logic of Economic Development: An Analysis of Brazilian Personal Services

SES-0111456 Samuel CohnTexas A M University该项目分析了巴西经济发展的社会和政治决定因素。当前关于经济发展的社会学著作是错误的，因为它没有考虑到小型和大型企业增长决定因素之间的差异。小公司代表了第三世界国家的绝大多数就业机会，但很少受到学术界的关注。据推测，国家干预与微型企业增长之间的关系并不遵循传统模式，因为a）小企业对国家政府的影响力很小，B）政府根据大企业的优先权制定政策--对小企业产生的影响是无计划的，但却是必然的。该项目考虑了巴西三个行业（餐馆、理发/美容店和旅馆）在州一级的就业变化。所有这三个行业都涉及个人服务;然而，餐馆和理发店/商店的平均企业规模很小，而旅馆则很大，属于连锁和多国所有制。已经收集和分析了巴西人口普查的数据，以建立这些部门就业的计量经济学模型。这一模式允许对市场规模等经济因素进行统计控制，并估计租金、税收和工资等关键成本的作用。从计量经济学模型的残差已被用来确定一组国家的服务部门活动水平异常高或低的市场因素净。国家科学基金会的资金将用于支持一年的实地工作，以便对以这种方式选择的病例进行定性调查。首席研究员将对东北部三个州进行持续对比。其中之一，塞尔吉佩，有一个非常高的就业水平在理发/美容店，并保持这一水平自1940年以来。其中之一，巴伊亚，在20世纪70年代看到了服务业活动的复苏。第三个是阿拉戈斯，在各方面都很一般。该研究还将对其他州的剩余就业进行较小的分析。这些因素包括：a）在两个人为创造的“计划”首都-大坎普和巴西利亚-服务业就业水平的高低对比; B）巴西两个主要大都市（圣保罗和里约热内卢）服务业的缓慢下降; c）在其他繁荣的南里奥格兰德，剩余服务业就业显著下降。对商人和决策者的采访将与有关的文件和档案资料结合起来。定性实地调查的方法将类似于关于巴西经济发展的标准社会学著作，如Peter Evans的著作。然而，这项研究可以将这些调查结果与时间序列横截面分析的计量经济学结果联系起来，对实地观察到的现象的影响进行更严格的测试。定量和定性分析测试理论来自新古典经济学，正统的国家主导的发展文献，政治经济学，新的网络经济社会学，非正式经济文献和民族飞地文献。然而，该项目的一个目标是超越这些理论，并产生一个新的决策理论般的帐户，强调为其他目的设计的政策的意外发展后果。

SES- 0111456Samuel CohnTexas A&M University This project is an analysis of the social and political determinants of economic development in Brazil. Current sociological writing on economic development is mis-specified because it fails to account for differences between the determinants of growth for small and large firms. Small firms represent the vast majority of employment in third world nations but receive very little scholarly attention. It is hypothesized that the relationship between state intervention and the growth of microenterprise does not follow traditional models because a) small firms have little influence on national governments and b) governments set policies based on the priority of large firms - producing effects on small firms that are unplanned but consequential. The project considers state-year level variation in employment in three Brazilian industries: restaurants, barber/beauty shops and hotels. All three industries involve personal service; however, restaurants and barber/shops have very low average firm size, while hotels are large and subject to chain and multinational ownership. Data from the Brazilian census has already been collected and analyzed to develop an econometric model of employment in these sectors. This model allows for the statistical control of economic factors such as market size, and the estimation of the role of key costs such as rent, taxes and wages. The residuals from the econometric model have been used to identify a set of states with unusually high or low levels of service sector activity net of market factors. National Science Foundation funds will be used to support a year of fieldwork to allow for qualitative investigation of the cases selected in this manner. The principal investigator will perform a sustained contrast of three northeastern states. One, Sergipe, has an extraordinarily high level of employment n barber/beauty shops, and has maintained this level since 1940. One, Bahia, saw a resurgence of service sector activity in the 1970's. The third, Alagoas, is average in all respects. The study will also do smaller analyses of residual employment in other states. These include a) contrasting high and low levels of service employment in two artificially-created "planned" capitols, Campo Grande and Brasilia, b) the slow decline of services in both of Brazil's major metropoli (Sdo Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), and c) the marked decline in residual service employment in otherwise prosperous Rio Grande do Sul. Interviews of businessmen and policy makers will be combined with relevant documentary and archival sources. The methodology of the qualitative fieldwork will resemble that standard sociological works on Brazilian economic development such as those of Peter Evans. However, this study can link those findings to econometric results from a time-series cross-section analysis providing more rigorous tests of the impacts of the phenomena observed in the field. The quantitative and qualitative analysis tests theories drawn from neoclassical economics, the orthodox state-led development literature, political economy, the new network-based economic sociology, the informal economy literature and the ethnic enclave literature. A goal of the project however is to go beyond these theories and produce a new decision-theory-like account that emphasizes the unanticipated developmental consequences of policies designed for other purposes.