BE/CNH: Agent-Based Modeling of Bering Sea Biocomplexity: Long-Term Ecological Effects of Human Interactions

白令海南部和北太平洋中部地区被认为是世界上最重要的渔业之一。然而，最近包括鲑鱼、海狮、海獭和一些远洋鸟类在内的许多物种的灾难性下降表明，考虑到现代的捕获率，这种生态系统既不健康，也不可持续。对许多物种，特别是与几种鲑鱼有关的物种数量下降的解释是单一的和政治的，没有对该地区捕食者(人类和海洋哺乳动物)与其猎物之间的关系进行详细调查。利用生物和生态数据、古气候重建、关于生存和收获率的考古数据、历史和现代捕捞和逃逸记录、人种学报告和传统生态知识，该项目将使用基于群体代理的建模例程来研究阿拉斯加白令海南部地区人类-鲑鱼-生态系统相互作用的动态。多学科调查小组将制定方法，直接测试与一套或多套人类和/或自然系统的变化对其他系统的直接和间接影响有关的若干关系。这个项目将以一系列基于自然捕食者-猎物相互作用、养殖收获策略和白令海生态系统长期变化的单一因果模拟开始。研究人员将在这些模拟之后进行多变量测试，以调查各种可能的因素之间的相互作用。这种模拟的多变量测试应该有助于识别不同代理人之间的重要交互作用，即使个别代理人对鲑鱼渔业没有实质性的影响。本项目将评估人类和非人类代理人在建模过程中的独立和相互依赖的角色。人类在白令海地区已经生活了至少一万年，在近代史上，人类在该地区生态系统中从来没有不发挥重要作用的时候。该项目还将增加关于多个时间和空间尺度上的代理人相互作用的知识。数据将包括来自不同尺度的数据，如单个船只的季节性捕捞记录，湖心4000年的营养循环，以及6000年的动物遗骸考古记录。该项目还将利用当地和土著知识，并让当地居民参与模型和结果的评估。该项目还应具有重大的实际意义，因为它评估了复杂的白令海生态系统中鲑鱼生产力和成功的结构和动态。该项目是2001财年环境中生物复杂性特别竞赛的奖项，重点是自然和人类耦合系统的动力学。

The southern Bering Sea and central North Pacific region is considered to be one of the world's most important fisheries. Yet recent catastrophic declines in many species including salmon, Steller sea lion, sea otter, and some pelagic birds show that this ecosystem is neither healthy nor sustainable given modern harvesting rates. Explanations for declines in many species, particularly in relation to several species of salmon, have been monocausal and political without detailed investigations of the relationships between predators (humans and sea mammals) and their prey in this region. Using biological and ecological data, paleoclimatic reconstructions, archaeological data on subsistence and harvesting rates, historic and modern catch and escapement records, ethnographic reports and traditional ecological knowledge, this project will use Swarm agent-based modeling routines to investigate the dynamics of human-salmon-ecosystem interactions in the southern Bering Sea region of Alaska. The multidisciplinary investigative team will develop methods to directly test a number of relationships associated with direct and indirect impacts of changes in one or more sets of human and/or natural systems on the others. This project will begin with a series of monocausal simulations based on natural predator-prey interactions, cultural harvesting strategies, and long-term changes in the Bering Sea ecosystem. The investigators will follow these simulations with multivariate tests in order to investigate interactions between various possible agents. This multivariate testing of simulations should help identify important interaction effects among different agents, even when individual agents have been shown no substantial influence on salmon fisheries.This project will assess the independent and interdependent roles of both human and non-human agents in the modeling process. Humans have lived in the Bering Sea region for at least 10,000 years, and there has never been a time in recent history where humans did not play an important role in the regional ecosystem. This project also will add to knowledge regarding the interplay of agents across multiple temporal and spatial scales. Data will be included from such diverse scales as seasonal catch records of an individual boat, 4,000-year nutrient cycles from lake cores, and a 6,000-year archaeological record of faunal remains. The project also will use of local and indigenous knowledge and will involve local residents in the evaluation of the models and results. The project also should have significant practical implications as it assesses the structure and dynamics of salmon productivity and success in the complex Bering Sea ecosystem. This project is an award emanating from the FY 2001 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.