Large Scale Atmospheric Variability from a Quasi-Geostrophic Turbulence Perspective

该项目将调查大尺度大气的变化在多大程度上受较小天气尺度变化的控制。天气波的高能量通量被认为是产生较大尺度变化的重要因素。当然，它绝不是唯一的贡献者，因为纬向气流的不稳定性，热带非绝热加热的变化，以及行星波-纬向气流相互作用也可以在对流层中产生显著的行星尺度变化。这种可变性成分的建模和预测仍然具有挑战性。Orlando博士和共同研究员Tung博士（华盛顿大学，西雅图）将对高档天气通量和大尺度对流层环流的相互作用进行动态分析。该项目的重点将是从不同复杂性的模拟实验中确定高级天气通量的特征。该项目将促进对季节内到季节时间尺度上对流层环流变化的理解和建模，特别是在北方冬季。

The project will investigate the extent to which variability of the large-scale atmosphere is controlled by variations at the smaller synoptic scales. The upscale energy flux from the synoptic waves is reckoned to be an important contributor in generating variations at the larger scales. It is, of course, by no means the only contributor since instability of the zonal flow, variations in tropical diabatic heating, and planetary wave-zonal flow interactions can also generate significant planetary-scale variability in the troposphere on the intraseasonal-to seasonal time scales. Modeling and prediction of this variability component remains challenging. Drs. Orlando and, co-PI, Dr. Tung (Univ. of Washington, Seattle) will conduct a dynamically oriented analysis of the interaction of upscale synoptic fluxes and the larger-scale tropospheric circulation. The focus of the project will be on characterizing the upscale synoptic fluxes from modeling experiments of varying complexity. The project will advance understanding and modeling of the tropospheric circulation variability on intraseasonal-to-seasonal time scales, particularly, during the Northern winter season.