CAREER: Understanding the Impacts of Future Sea Ice Loss on Large-Scale Patterns of Atmospheric Variability and Cold Air Outbreaks

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Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in the climate system and its loss owing to human-caused climate change can have a profound impact on the atmosphere. The goal of this project is to further our understanding of how future Arctic sea ice loss might impact daily weather patterns and extreme cold air outbreak events. A machine learning method (self-organizing maps) will be used to characterize daily weather patterns, and a feature-tracking algorithm (TempestExtremesV2.1) will be used to identify and track cold air outbreaks. These methods will be applied to a series of coordinated global climate model experiments created as part of the Polar Amplification Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) that were designed to study the causal impacts of sea ice loss. Scientific understanding of future changes in weather and climate must be accompanied by effective climate communication to the public to affect change. The education component of this project will include the development of a series of course modules designed to train broadcast meteorology and climate science students in effective climate communication. Furthermore, the investigator will conduct direct engagement with Pennsylvania residents through a quarterly climate segment on Penn State’s own PBS program Weather World.Extreme cold air outbreaks can have significant socio-economic impacts. One such example is the 2021 ‘Valentine’s Week Winter Outbreak’ that severely impacted the Texas power grid. Understanding how and why these events may change in the future can provide governments and industry with the information necessary to adapt to these changes. The proposed education plan will increase societal understanding of climate change related impacts, both by equipping the next generation of meteorologists and climate scientists with the tools necessary to conduct effective science communication and through the investigator’s appearances on Weather World. These activities will serve to improve public understanding, engagement, and ultimately action on climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.