CAREER: Understanding the Impacts of Future Sea Ice Loss on Large-Scale Patterns of Atmospheric Variability and Cold Air Outbreaks

北冰洋海冰在气候系统中发挥着关键作用，人为气候变化造成的海冰消失可能对大气产生深远影响。这个项目的目标是加深我们对未来北冰洋海冰减少可能如何影响日常天气模式和极端冷空气爆发事件的理解。将使用机器学习方法(自组织映射)来表征每日天气模式，并将使用特征跟踪算法(TempestExtremeV2.1)来识别和跟踪冷空气爆发。这些方法将被应用于一系列协调的全球气候模型实验，这些实验是极地放大国际比较项目(PAMIP)的一部分，旨在研究海冰减少的原因影响。对未来天气和气候变化的科学理解必须伴随着向公众进行有效的气候传播以影响变化。该项目的教育部分将包括开发一系列课程单元，旨在培训广播气象学和气候科学专业的学生进行有效的气候传播。此外，调查员将通过宾夕法尼亚州州立大学自己的PBS节目天气世界的季度气候部分与宾夕法尼亚州居民进行直接接触。极端冷空气爆发可能会产生重大的社会经济影响。2021年的情人节冬季疫情就是这样一个例子，它严重影响了德克萨斯州的电网。了解这些事件未来可能如何以及为什么会发生变化，可以为政府和行业提供必要的信息，以适应这些变化。拟议的教育计划将通过为下一代气象学家和气候科学家配备进行有效科学交流所需的工具，以及通过调查员出现在天气世界上，来增加社会对气候变化相关影响的了解。这些活动将有助于提高公众对气候变化的理解和参与，并最终采取行动。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in the climate system and its loss owing to human-caused climate change can have a profound impact on the atmosphere. The goal of this project is to further our understanding of how future Arctic sea ice loss might impact daily weather patterns and extreme cold air outbreak events. A machine learning method (self-organizing maps) will be used to characterize daily weather patterns, and a feature-tracking algorithm (TempestExtremesV2.1) will be used to identify and track cold air outbreaks. These methods will be applied to a series of coordinated global climate model experiments created as part of the Polar Amplification Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) that were designed to study the causal impacts of sea ice loss. Scientific understanding of future changes in weather and climate must be accompanied by effective climate communication to the public to affect change. The education component of this project will include the development of a series of course modules designed to train broadcast meteorology and climate science students in effective climate communication. Furthermore, the investigator will conduct direct engagement with Pennsylvania residents through a quarterly climate segment on Penn State’s own PBS program Weather World.Extreme cold air outbreaks can have significant socio-economic impacts. One such example is the 2021 ‘Valentine’s Week Winter Outbreak’ that severely impacted the Texas power grid. Understanding how and why these events may change in the future can provide governments and industry with the information necessary to adapt to these changes. The proposed education plan will increase societal understanding of climate change related impacts, both by equipping the next generation of meteorologists and climate scientists with the tools necessary to conduct effective science communication and through the investigator’s appearances on Weather World. These activities will serve to improve public understanding, engagement, and ultimately action on climate change.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.