Tropical Cyclogenesis in the PRE-depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics program (PREDICT): The Marsupial Paradigm in Action

热带气旋计划中云系统抑郁前调查（PREDICT）：有袋动物范式的实际应用

• 批准号: 0851554
• 负责人: Timothy Dunkerton
• 金额: $ 25.71万
• 依托单位: NorthWest Research Associates, Incorporated
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-10-01 至 2012-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0851554&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Tropical; Cyclogenesis; PRE; depression; Investigation

Intellectual Merit: Tropical cyclogenesis remains one of the outstanding mysteries of the tropical atmosphere, yet a proper understanding of how hurricanes and typhoons are born is the first of several steps in relating the effects of climate change on these storms and the impact of severe weather on coastal regions of eastern North America. Fundamentally a mesoscale process, tropical cyclogenesis integrates the large-scale circulation, synoptic waves, and mesoscale processes (ranging from critical layer formation in tropical waves to vortical hot towers on the cloud scale) into a hurricane monolith at intermediate scales (20-200 km). Although many of the relevant dynamical and thermodynamical processes at this scale have been investigated, virtually nothing is known about their relative importance, chronological sequence and mutual interaction in the various stages of tropical cyclogenesis. A field campaign (PRE-depression Investigation of Cloud systems in the Tropics; PREDICT) has been designed to obtain in situ measurements of mesoscale processes in developing tropical depressions in the western Atlantic. Data from the PREDICT field campaign will be analyzed in conjunction with operational and retrospective meteorological analyses, short-term forecasts and satellite imagery in order to address mesoscale issues and the interaction of physical processes across multiple scales. A new "marsupial paradigm" developed by the Principal Investigator and colleagues at the Naval Postgraduate School will be applied in real time to the PREDICT data acquisition and interpretation efforts. This paradigm focuses on the role of the tropical wave critical layer (outer mesoscale, 200-2000 km) in genesis, and on key environmental conditions that are necessary for development within the "gyre-pouch" of a parent wave. This study is concerned mainly with mesoscale processes operating in the gyre-pouch, and how these processes are affected by environmental conditions nearby and within. A null hypothesis of PREDICT is that mesoscale processes do not vary across a wide range of synoptic patterns in which tropical cyclogenesis occurs. According to this idea, it is the precise way that mesoscale processes interact with, and within, the gyre's moist vortical environment that determines whether storm development is successful. The marsupial paradigm provides the necessary Lagrangian framework for interpretation of high-resolution atmospheric data and for improved understanding of processes. Post-analysis of field data will be integrated with large-scale analyses to refine and extend the marsupial paradigm. Broader Impacts: Public education on severe weather is important to help society utilize weather information and to help them understand their environment. A longer-term concern is to understand how our changing climate has, and will, affect these storms and their impacts. An improved scientific understanding of how to interpret the data input stream will be passed on to the public in terms of a more reliable classification of storm status and better prediction of the likelihood of storm formation and intensification when these systems, in many cases, are still far from land.

智力优势：热带气旋生成仍然是热带大气的一个未解之谜，然而，正确理解飓风和台风是如何诞生的，是将气候变化对这些风暴的影响与恶劣天气对北美东部沿海地区的影响联系起来的几个步骤中的第一步。 热带气旋生成基本上是一个中尺度过程，它将大尺度环流、天气波和中尺度过程（从热带波浪中的临界层形成到云尺度上的涡旋热塔）整合成中等尺度（20-200公里）的飓风单体。 虽然许多相关的动力学和气象过程在这个尺度上已经被研究，几乎没有什么是知道的，它们的相对重要性，时间顺序和相互作用的热带气旋生成的各个阶段。 设计了一项实地活动（热带云系的低气压前调查; PREDICT），以便对西大西洋正在形成的热带低气压的中尺度过程进行现场测量。 将结合业务和回顾性气象分析、短期预报和卫星图像分析来自预测活动的数据，以解决中尺度问题和多尺度物理过程的相互作用。 由海军研究生院的首席研究员和同事们开发的一种新的“有袋动物范例”将在真实的时间内应用于预测数据采集和解释工作。这种模式的重点是热带波的关键层（外部中尺度，200-2000公里）在成因中的作用，并对关键的环境条件，是必要的发展内的“环流袋”的母波。 本研究主要关注的是中尺度过程中操作的涡旋袋，以及这些过程是如何受到附近和内部的环境条件的影响。 PREDICT的一个零假设是中尺度过程在热带气旋生成的大范围天气型中不发生变化。 根据这一观点，正是中尺度过程与环流潮湿的涡旋环境相互作用的精确方式决定了风暴的发展是否成功。 有袋动物的范例提供了必要的拉格朗日框架的解释高分辨率的大气数据和更好地了解的过程。 现场数据的后分析将与大规模分析相结合，以完善和扩展有袋动物的范例。更广泛的影响：恶劣天气的公众教育对帮助社会利用天气信息和帮助他们了解他们的环境非常重要。 一个长期的关注是了解我们不断变化的气候如何影响这些风暴及其影响。公众对如何解释数据输入流有了更好的科学认识，就可以更可靠地对风暴状况进行分类，更好地预测风暴形成和加强的可能性，而在许多情况下，这些系统仍然远离陆地。