CAREER: An Integrated Transportation Network Reliability Analysis Framework

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Experience with earthquakes has provided compelling evidence of transportation infrastructure's critical role in restoring normalcy as well as the need for reliable transportation systems under natural or man-made disasters. Nonetheless, reliability analysis has received very little attention in transportation research. Moreover, increased economic activity and improved quality of life have placed a higher value on reducing congestion. Road travelers in the 21st century would prefer a more reliable transportation system with a higher level of confidence of arriving at their destination on schedule. Transportation network reliability analysis will play an important role in the planning, design and management of transportation facilities and networks particularly in developed countries and/or mega-cities.The research plan entails developing an integrated transportation network reliability analysis framework. This integrated analysis framework involves modeling, evaluation, design, algorithm development, and implementation. The modeling includes estimating the maximum capacity of a transportation network and developing stochastic route choice models that account for both the traveler perception error as well as the uncertainty of network travel times. The evaluation component involves the assessment of transportation reliability measures: travel time reliability is concerned with the probability that a trip between a given origin-destination pair can be made within a given time interval and a specified level-of-service, and capacity reliability is concerned with the probability that the network capacity can accommodate a certain volume of traffic demand at a required service level. The design component addresses roadway network designed reliability and cost-effectiveness and includes investigating the role of information and learning in travel decisions. Finally, algorithms will be developed and implemented that will render the framework operational and successful. The education plan focuses on two important tasks: (1) enhancing the undergraduate program to better prepare our students for engineering/technology careers in the 21st century, and (2) developing a graduation transportation curriculum and teaching program with emphasis in systems modeling. These objectives will be achieved by (a) providing hands-on, team experience through computer lab exercises to our students to promote active and collaborative learning, (b) exposing promising students at the undergraduate level to research opportunities in transportation, (c) building a graduate curriculum and teaching program that emphasizes systems modeling, and (d) developing a transportation research seminar to provide an informal forum for students to discuss a wide range of topics related to transportation issues that do not necessarily fit into the course curriculum. In addition to the above educational activities, the PI will integrate research into teaching by bringing in new insights and results generated by this CAREER project into both undergraduate and graduate courses, to broaden the students' educational experience based on the research plan, and to recruit and retain traditionally under-represented students to the transportation program.