Urban transportation policies, technologies, and modes: An integrated model for greenhouse gas and air quality assessment

在加拿大和世界范围内，运输产生的温室气体排放和标准空气污染物占很大一部分。在车辆技术和交通方式方面，选择都很多，而且高度因地制宜。需要一个详细的、高度可定制的、但又准确的建模系统，该系统受益于大量的数据，以研究、评估和规划混合选项。在这个研究项目中，我将构建一个模型平台来指导零排放交通的推进。该平台将用于研究当前和未来的交通政策、模式和技术。它将包括移动源真实排放数据库、区域排放清单、空气和碳污染扩散模型，以及基于公开数据的校准和预测模块。短期目标包括：(1)制定包括上游温室气体并为研究区域量身定做的最新移动源排放系数；(2)建立高分辨率自下而上的区域排放清单；(3)利用可公开获得的数据校准模型投入并增加预测能力；(4)评估交通选择的近期变化。该方案的长期目标是：(I)在跟踪和控制所有其他非预期后果的同时，为零排放交通选择提供快速可行的途径；(Ii)提供必要的数据，以评估和衡量其他可持续性指标，如交通选择变化对健康和社会的影响。拟议的研究计划的长期目标为政策框架的有效性提供了支持和科学证据，例如泛加拿大清洁增长和气候变化框架(PCF)和为所有加拿大人实现加拿大环境空气质量标准(CAAQS)。该计划设想的可持续交通是可行的、经济上可行的、社会可接受的、公平的、可获得的，并且不会造成其他意想不到的后果。该计划的影响是指导监管机构、政策制定者和公众在空气污染和能源需求得到控制的同时，实现交通行业的零排放目标。它向政策制定者和监管者提供公开可用的数据库和建模系统。它向非营利性组织伸出援手，展示最可行的选择。该计划将直接培训13名HQP。温哥华地铁和不列颠哥伦比亚省政府等地区公共当局将获得研究成果，并从该系统的运行场景中受益。拟议的研究计划将在以下方面取得进展：(1)更好地了解实际车辆排放因素，(2)综合机动性评估框架，(3)使用数据分析增加预测能力，(4)引入车辆技术和城市环境之间的多学科研究领域。

Transportation generates a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions and criteria air contaminants in Canada and worldwide. Options are numerous both in vehicle technologies and transportation modes and are highly location-specific. A detailed, highly customizable, yet accurate modelling system that benefits from abundant data is needed to study, evaluate, and plan mixed options. In this research program, I will construct a modelling platform to guide the advancement of zero-emission transportation. The platform will be utilized to study current and prospective transportation policies, modes, and technologies. It will include mobile source real-world emission databank, regional emission inventory, air and carbon pollution dispersion model, and calibration and forecasting module based on publicly available data. Short-term objectives include (i) develop updated mobile source emission factors that include upstream GHGs and are customized for the region of the study, (ii) construct a high resolution bottom-up regional emission inventory, (iii) Use publicly available data to calibrate the model inputs and add prediction capability, and (iv) evaluate the near-term change of transportation options. The long-term objective of the program is (i) to provide fast and feasible pathways towards zero-emission transportation options while keeping track and controlling all other unintended consequences, (ii) provide required data to evaluate and measure other sustainability indicators such as health and social impacts of the change of transportation options. The proposed research program's long-term objectives provide support and scientific evidence for the effectiveness of policy frameworks such as the pan-Canadian framework on clean growth and climate change (PCF) and achieving Canadian ambient air quality standards (CAAQS) for all Canadians. The program envisions sustainable transportation that is viable, economically feasible, socially acceptable, equitable, accessible and creates no other unintended consequences. The program's impact is to guide regulators, policymakers, and the public on achieving zero-emission targets in the transportation sector while air pollution and energy demand remain in check. It provides publicly available databank and modelling systems to policymakers and regulators. It outreaches to non-for-profits and showcases the most feasible and viable options. The program will train 13 HQPs directly. Regional public authorities such as Metro Vancouver and the British Columbia government will access the research outcome and benefit from running scenarios on the system. The proposed research program will lead to advances in t (1) improved understanding of real vehicle emission factors, (2) comprehensive mobility evaluation framework, (3) use of data analytics to add predictive capabilities and, (4) introduction of a multidisciplinary research field that is a cross between vehicle technology and urban environment.