Space Weather: Radiation Belt Specification and Forecasting with Data Assimilation

该项目将使用四维数据同化来动态指定从非常接近地球表面到10个地球半径范围内的地球电子辐射带的状况。它将利用来自洛斯阿拉莫斯地球同步卫星、NOAA GOES卫星和GPS卫星的数据。其他数据将来自SAMPEX和Polar卫星。将使用两种经验预测技术。首先是基于线性系统辨识理论的自回归移动平均模型。第二种是基于历史类似物概念的模型。这两种技术将相互比较，以确定每种技术在什么条件下最合适。

This project will use four-dimensional data assimilation to dynamically specify the condition of the Earth's electron radiation belts from very near the Earth's surface out to a distance of 10 Earth radii. It will utilize data from the Los Alamos geostationary satellites, the NOAA GOES satellites and the GPS satellites. Additional data will come from the SAMPEX and Polar satellites. Two empirical prediction techniques will be used. The first is an Auto-Regressive Moving Average model based on linear system identification theory. The second is a model based on the concept of historical analogs. The two techniques will be compared with one another in order to determine under what conditions each technique is most appropriate.