Space Weather: Predicting Radiation Level at Shocks Passage at Earth

这项研究将把来自SOHO/LASCO和EIT的太阳图像和行星际激波的太阳风现场观测与对激波全球特征的磁流体动力学模拟结合起来。从这一综合可以得到激波源相对于地球的位置、日冕物质抛射的大小、冲击压缩参数以及在1AU的现场观测时磁化等离子体流的特征。这一信息将被用来确定在1AU的激波通道上对太阳高能粒子水平的影响。作为这一分析的结果，因此，应该有可能开发出比目前通过美国国家海洋和大气层管理局空间气象服务提供的更好的地球辐射水平预测能力。

This study will combine solar images derived from SOHO/LASCO and EIT and in-situ solar wind observations of interplanetary shocks with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the global characteristics of the shock. From this synthesis one may derive information on the shock source location with respect to the Earth, the size of the coronal mass ejection, the shock compression parameters and characteristics of the magnetized plasma flow at its in situ observation at 1 AU. This information will be used to identify the effect on the level of solar energetic particles at shock passage at 1 AU. As a result of this analysis, it should thus be possible to develop a better forecast capability for radiation levels at Earth than what is currently available through the NOAA space weather service.