Space Weather: Predicting Radiation Level at Shocks Passage at Earth

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This study will combine solar images derived from SOHO/LASCO and EIT and in-situ solar wind observations of interplanetary shocks with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the global characteristics of the shock. From this synthesis one may derive information on the shock source location with respect to the Earth, the size of the coronal mass ejection, the shock compression parameters and characteristics of the magnetized plasma flow at its in situ observation at 1 AU. This information will be used to identify the effect on the level of solar energetic particles at shock passage at 1 AU. As a result of this analysis, it should thus be possible to develop a better forecast capability for radiation levels at Earth than what is currently available through the NOAA space weather service.