An Evaluation Approach for Flexibility in Manufacturing Enterprises

在当今这个价格和需求不确定、产品种类繁多、产品生命周期短、产品开发迅速的世界里，灵活性使企业能够更有效地竞争。为了从灵活性中获益，管理人员和制造系统必须在事件发生时做出反应。实物期权方法试图量化灵活性到底有多大价值。它既包含了商业中固有的不确定性，也包含了战略成功所需的积极干预。本研究的目的是发展一种评估方法来量化制造营运的灵活性，以改善营运决策。具体来说，目标是(1)使用实物期权框架捕获和(2)评估灵活性。为了实现这些目标，第一个研究任务将是开发一个多期期权模型，因为在作出行使备选期权的决定和该备选期权可以实施的时间之间通常存在滞后。第二个研究任务是开发一种蒙特卡罗模拟方法来评估多时间段的期权，允许在决策范围内的几个选择之间切换。因此，第三个研究任务是开发一种快速逼近期权值的有效启发式方法，使该方法在工业应用中具有实用性。这项研究可望作出若干贡献。首先，它将把最先进的金融期权研究带到制造企业领域，并通过与行业伙伴合作强调现实主义。此外，随着制造企业灵活性评估方法的发展，可以执行评估计算的软件工具也将产生。这些工具及其研究背景将被纳入工程课程。最后，这项工作将促进未被充分代表的教师和学生的职业发展。

Flexibility allows firms to compete more effectively in today's world of substantial price and demand uncertainty, product variety, short product life cycles, and rapid product development. In order to benefit from flexibility, managers and manufacturing systems must react to events as they unfold. The real options approach seeks to quantify just how valuable flexibility really is. It incorporates both the uncertainty that is inherent in business and the active intervention required for a strategy to succeed. The purpose of this research is to develop an evaluation approach to quantify flexibility in manufacturing operations in order to improve operational decision making. Specifically, the objectives are to (1) capture and (2) value that flexibility using a real options framework. In order to accomplish these objectives, the first research task will be to develop a model for multi-period options because there is usually a lag between the time when a decision to exercise an alternative option is made and when that alternative option can be implemented. The second research task is to develop a Monte Carlo simulation approach for valuing multi-time period options that allows switches among several choices during a decision horizon. Thus the third research task is to develop an efficient heuristic for fast approximation of option values so that the approach will be practical for industry application. This research is expected to make several contributions. Foremost, it will bring state-of-the-art financial option research to the area of manufacturing enterprises and emphasize realism by collaborating with industry partners. Additionally, as the methodological approach for valuing flexibility in manufacturing enterprises is developed, software tools that can execute the valuation calculations will also be generated. These tools and their research contexts will be incorporated into the engineering curriculum. Finally, this work will promote the careers of underrepresented faculty and students.