An Evaluation Approach for Flexibility in Manufacturing Enterprises

灵活性使企业能够在当今世界更有效地竞争，价格和需求的不确定性，产品种类繁多，产品生命周期短，产品开发迅速。为了从灵活性中获益，管理人员和制造系统必须在事件发生时做出反应。真实的期权方法试图量化灵活性的价值。它既包含了企业固有的不确定性，也包含了战略成功所需的积极干预。 本研究的目的是开发一种评估方法，以量化制造业务的柔性，以提高经营决策。具体而言，目标是（1）捕捉和（2）价值的灵活性使用真实的期权框架。为了实现这些目标，第一项研究任务将是开发一个多期期权模型，因为在做出行使替代期权的决定和实施替代期权之间通常存在滞后。 第二个研究任务是开发一种蒙特卡罗模拟方法来评估多时间段的选项，允许在一个决策范围内的几个选择之间的切换。因此，第三个研究任务是开发一个有效的启发式快速近似的期权价值，使该方法将是实际的工业应用。 预计这项研究将作出若干贡献。最重要的是，它将把最先进的金融期权研究带到制造企业领域，并通过与行业合作伙伴的合作来强调现实主义。此外，随着制造企业灵活性估值方法的发展，也将产生能够执行估值计算的软件工具。这些工具及其研究背景将被纳入工程课程。最后，这项工作将促进代表性不足的教师和学生的职业生涯。

Flexibility allows firms to compete more effectively in today's world of substantial price and demand uncertainty, product variety, short product life cycles, and rapid product development. In order to benefit from flexibility, managers and manufacturing systems must react to events as they unfold. The real options approach seeks to quantify just how valuable flexibility really is. It incorporates both the uncertainty that is inherent in business and the active intervention required for a strategy to succeed. The purpose of this research is to develop an evaluation approach to quantify flexibility in manufacturing operations in order to improve operational decision making. Specifically, the objectives are to (1) capture and (2) value that flexibility using a real options framework. In order to accomplish these objectives, the first research task will be to develop a model for multi-period options because there is usually a lag between the time when a decision to exercise an alternative option is made and when that alternative option can be implemented. The second research task is to develop a Monte Carlo simulation approach for valuing multi-time period options that allows switches among several choices during a decision horizon. Thus the third research task is to develop an efficient heuristic for fast approximation of option values so that the approach will be practical for industry application. This research is expected to make several contributions. Foremost, it will bring state-of-the-art financial option research to the area of manufacturing enterprises and emphasize realism by collaborating with industry partners. Additionally, as the methodological approach for valuing flexibility in manufacturing enterprises is developed, software tools that can execute the valuation calculations will also be generated. These tools and their research contexts will be incorporated into the engineering curriculum. Finally, this work will promote the careers of underrepresented faculty and students.