LTER: Consequences of Land Use Change in the Southern Appalachian Mountains

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The Coweeta LTER Research Program has evolved since 1980 from a site-based to a site- and region-based project examining the effects of disturbance and environmental gradients on biogeochemical cycling, and the underlying watershed ecosystem processes that regulate and respond to those cycles. The objective for the proposed 2002-2008 research is to advance scientific understanding of the spatial, temporal, and decision-making components of land use and land-use change in the southern Appalachian Mountains over the last 200 years, and forecast patterns into the future 30 years. This will be accomplished by addressing ecological and socioeconomic aspects of land-use change while continuing long-term studies of environmental gradients and natural disturbance regimes. The result will be a more complete understanding of ecological dynamics in the southern Appalachian Mountains that makes possible the development of reasonable forecasts of its future ecological state.The guiding hypothesis for the proposed research is that the frequency, intensity, and extent of land use represents human decision-making in response to socioeconomic and biogeophysical conditions with consequences that cascade through ecosystems. The research activities are organized into three initiatives: (1) characterization of the "socio-natural template," (2) ecosystem responses to the socio-natural template, and (3) forecasting ecosystem responses to changes in the socio-natural template. The integrated scientific research will provide both a description as well as an explanation of the underlying causes of land use and the consequences of land-use change for southern Appalachian ecosystems and society. It thus recognizes the complexity of land use as a process and the research and outreach needs as defined in the LTER Program and the broader scientific and public communities.