GLOBEC-01: Zooplankton Population Dynamics on Georges Bank: Model and Data Synthesis

本项目的目标是通过对平流输送、温度、食物可获得性和捕食者场的影响，获得气候变化对乔治浅滩目标浮游动物种群动态和生产的影响的机理性理解。 正在利用数据分析和模型作为工具，将全球生物多样性方案前三个阶段取得的成果纳入一个新的关于调节海岸浮游动物丰度的物理和生物过程的综合报告。物理模型将被迫与测量的每日，年际变化的数据，并结合生物模型合成GLOBEC程序期间收集的详细观测，了解平流的作用，并解开物理和生物过程的影响，物理和生物模型的层次结构正在开发中。这些包括1-，2-，和3- D物理模型，生态系统模型，和基于个体的模型（IBM）的目标物种。IBM正在与旨在代表缅因州和乔治银行次区域的不同海湾的特征环境的1D物理模型相耦合。 最终，IBM将通过粒子跟踪与完整的3D物理/生态系统模型耦合。这将提供一个物理和生物的环境，在其中开发和探索的物理和生物因素对桡足类种群动态的综合影响的假说。虽然在所有的大规模调查年的种群动态将进行研究，initialinvestigations是集中在1995年，1998年和1999年。这些数据集是这些年来最完整的数据集，目前已有1998年和1999年的SeaWiFS数据。这些年也代表了各种各样的环境条件：1999年缅因州海湾冬季大范围的水华，与斯科舍大陆架流入和分层增加有关; 1995年略暖; 1998年的风暴活动比1999年强。此外，1998年和1999年（在较小程度上）表明黑线鳕的补充量很大，但鳕鱼显然没有。正在调查的具体问题包括：1月至4月期间乔治浅滩目标浮游动物物种平流供应的风力控制; 6 - 4月间芬兰哲水蚤向缅因州湾流域滞育种群平流通量的年际和/或事件水平变化;年际和/或事件水平的变化，平流损失的桡足类从乔治银行和银行分区域;分层对浮游生态系统的影响，以及这如何影响目标浮游动物物种的种群动态，通过食物和捕食。 作为第四阶段目标鱼类浮游生物综合研究的一个环节，本研究提供了对决定浅滩上鳕鱼和黑线鳕幼体桡足类猎物产量的因素的机理见解。这些学生正在接受培训，成为受过广泛教育的研究人员，擅长在工作中结合各种学科的技术。 此外，这是两位年轻研究人员（Pringle，Gentleman）毕业以来的第一个主要独立资金来源。

The goal of this project is to gain a mechanistic understanding of the influences ofclimate variation on the population dynamics and production of target zooplankton species on Georges Bank (Calanus finmarchicus, Pseudocalanus moultoni, P. newmani, and Oithona similis) through its effects on advective transport, temperature, food availability, and predator fields. Using data analysis and models as tools, results acquired during the first three phases of GLOBEC are being incorporated into a new synthesis of the physical and biological processes regulating zooplankton abundance on the Bank. Physical models will be forced with measured daily, interannually variable data, and coupled to biological models synthesizing the detailed observations collected during the GLOBEC program.To understand the role of advection, and to disentangle the effects of physical and biological processes, a hierarchy of physical and biological models are being developed. These include 1-, 2-, and 3- D physical models, ecosystem models, and individual-based models (IBMs) for the target species. The IBMs are being coupled to 1D physical models designed to represent the characteristic environments of the different Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank subregions. Ultimately, the IBMs will be coupled to the full 3D physical/ecosystem model through particle tracking. This will provide a physical and biological milieu in which to develop and probe hypotheses regarding the combined influences of physical and biological factors on the copepod population dynamics.Although the population dynamics in all broadscale survey years will be studied, initialinvestigations are concentrating on 1995, 1998 and 1999. The data sets are the most complete for these years, and SeaWiFS data are available for 1998 and 1999. These years also represent a wide range of environmental conditions: an extensive winter bloom in the Gulf of Maine in 1999 related to Scotian Shelf inflow and increased stratification; a slightly warmer year in 1995; and stronger storm activity in 1998 than 1999. In addition 1998, and to a lesser extent 1999, gave the indication of being strong years for haddock recruitment but apparently not for cod.Specific issues that are being investigated include: wind control of the advective supply of the target zooplankton species to Georges Bank during January-April; interannual and/or event-level variations in the advective flux of Calanus finmarchicus to Gulf of Maine basin diapausing populations during June-April; interannual and/or event-level variations in advective losses of copepods from Georges Bank and bank subregions; the influence of stratification on the planktonic ecosystem, and how this affects the population dynamics of the target zooplankton species through food and predation. As a link to Phase IV synthesis studies on target ichthyoplankton, this investigation provides mechanistic insight into the factors determining production of copepod prey for larval cod and haddock on the Bank.A number of students will be trained over the course of the Phase IV research. These students are being trained as broadly educated researchers adept at combining techniques from a variety of disciplines in their work. In addition, this is the first major independent funding source since graduation for two young investigators (Pringle, Gentleman).