WORKSHOP: Model-Data Integration and Network Design for Biogeochemical Research: An NCAR-CSU Summer School

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ABSTRACTGlobal biogeochemical research must increasingly address the problems of "detection" or quantification of changing fluxes to the atmosphere, and "attribution" or explanation of those fluxes in terms of specific mechanisms. Today, neither our measurement nor analysis capabilities are sufficient to meet the twin challenges of biogeochemical detection and attribution with sufficient accuracy and resolution. We propose a summer school to advance both analysis techniques (inverse and assimilation modeling) and observing system design. The Summer School will involves lectures from a broad and distinguished group of scientists on the biogeochemical cycles, current and planned measurement capability, process and data analytical modeling, and new approaches in applied math. It will have as its centerpiece a hands-on simulation exercise. Estimates of global terrestrial and oceanic fluxes will be produced from existing data and models, combined to produce flux fields with reasonable time-space variability. They will be distributed in a global simulated atmosphere using an atmospheric transport model, run at the maximum achievable resolution to produce a 4-D data set of concentrations. The participants will form competing teams to reconstruct surface fluxes. Each team will choose a measurement strategy and obtain data corresponding to that strategy by querying a referee. Each measurement will have a price and each team will have an identical budget in dollars to fund its observing program. Each team will have access to the same models. An adjoint carbon model is being developed at NCAR using the NASA DAO model in assimilation mode. The model will be available for the participants to use in network design, and to demonstrate concepts and application of data assimilation in biogeochemistry. The teams may choose any strategy they wish to estimate the real fluxes. The conclusions from the workshop will be summarized in a report and a series of articles on 1) design of the exercise and implications for observing system design, 2) a review of data assimilation approaches for biogeochemical cycle research, 3) possibilities for use of the simulation exercise in education. In the year following the workshop, we will make the psuedodata bases and analysis tools available and improve them to better meet the research needs of the biogeochemical research community.