Demographic Regimes and Kinship Systems

确定盟友和潜在敌人的亲属关系系统在从觅食者到游牧民再到农民的人类学群体的生活中发挥着核心作用。一个社会中亲属的数量和种类是由其人口的人口比率决定的。这样的种群通常很小，对环境波动的缓冲能力很差，并且容易受到速率的随机变化的影响。这项先导研究通过模拟测试了人口比率的不稳定繁荣和萧条对小人口中兄弟姐妹、堂兄弟姐妹和其他亲属数量的影响。该模型将区分队列效应和周期效应，并将控制由于样本量小而产生的随机性的影响。使用模拟程序SOCSIM，研究人员将改变生育、乱伦禁令、异族通婚模式和随机人口冲击。需要研究的根本问题是，在随机性和人口变化较少的现实条件下，对人口变化做出尖锐亲属关系反应的简单图景，以及这种变化可能产生的政治结果，是否仍能被检测到。这项探索性研究对我们理解本土血缘关系模式有一定的启示，这种血缘关系模式将不同的谱系类型归入相同的命名社会角色类别，从而通过语言分类压倒人口统计不平等。

Kinship systems which define sets of allies and potential enemies play a central role in the life of anthropological populations, from foragers to nomads to peasants. The number and kinds of kin in a society are produced by the demographic rates of its population. Such populations are usually small, poorly buffered from environmental fluctuations, and subject to random variation in rates. This pilot research tests through simulation the effects of unstable booms and busts in demographic rates on the number of siblings, cousins, and other relatives in small populations. The model will distinguish cohort effects from period effects and will control the effects of randomness due to small sample sizes. Using the simulation program SOCSIM, the researcher will vary fertility, incest prohibitions, patterns of exogamy and random demographic shocks. The fundamental question to be examined is whether the simple picture of sharp kinship responses to demographic change, and thus the plausible political outcomes of such changes, would remain detectable under realistic conditions of randomness and small population change. This exploratory research has implications for our understanding of native models of kinship which group different genealogical types into the same named social role categories, thus overriding demographic inequalities by linguistic classification.