COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: Detection and attribution of changes in the hydrologic regimes of the Mackenzie, the Kuparuk and the Lena River Basins

本研究的目的是检测和记录加拿大西部、阿拉斯加和东西伯利亚北极地区淡水储量的变化，将这些变化归因于其土地覆盖或气候来源，并评估过去和未来储存成分（如活动层深度、湖泊体积）的变化对流入北冰洋的淡水的影响。其目的是在空间上描述变化的水文制度，以促进对未来水文条件的准确预测，并发展一种数值模拟能力，即：1)准确捕捉当代气候和水文动态；2)对未来情景作出合理准确的预测；3)纳入记录良好的算法，这些算法将分发给希望包括北极地区陆地表面动态过程的其他模拟小组(例如：用于植被动力学或气体通量的研究)。研究人员还将通过使用基于空间的模型结果来开发基于统计的模型，从而提供一个泛北极的视角。研究大致分为两个主要部分：过程级水文研究和大尺度大气研究，并采用明确的方法弥合尺度差异。过程级研究包括对水文循环中的储存成分进行实地观察和分析，以及对它们在水文循环中的作用进行建模。实地研究包括对主要储存成分的调查，文献检索和遥感填补了许多空白。流域尺度的实地研究也将在包括育空中部、库帕鲁克、上育空、麦肯齐和莱纳流域在内的几个小流域进行，这些流域有长期记录和持续的测量项目。WaterWERCs模式将应用于这些小的子流域，利用当代记录进行校准和验证，并应用于整个流域，根据我们的大气模型计算过去、现在和未来的气候情景。大气模型PAM是一种最先进的区域气候模型，将由网格大气再分析驱动，专门用于泛北极环境。大气模式的结果将用现有的观测数据加以验证，网格化模式的输出将用于强制建立水文模式。

The objectives of this research are to detect and document changes in the storage of freshwater in the Arctic regions of the Western Canadian, Alaskan, and Eastern Siberian Arctic, to ascribe those changes to their land cover or climate source, and assess the impacts of past and future variations in storage components (e.g., active layer depth, lake volume) on freshwater inputs into the Arctic Ocean. The aim is to characterize the changing hydrologic regime spatially to facilitate accurate projections of future hydrologic conditions and to develop a numerical modeling capability that 1) accurately captures contemporary climatic and hydrologic dynamics, 2) projects reasonably accurate responses to future scenarios and 3) incorporates well documented algorithms that will be distributed to other modeling groups wishing to include dynamic land surface processes in arctic regions (e.g., for studies of vegetation dynamics or gas flux). The investigators will also provide a pan-Arctic perspective by using spatially-based model results to develop a statistically-based model. The research is divided broadly into two main components: process-level hydrologic studies and large-scale atmospheric studies, with a well-defined approach to bridge the scale differences. Process-level studies include field observations and analyses of the storage components in the hydrological cycle as well as modeling of their role in the hydrological cycle. Field studies include surveys of the main storage components, with literature searches and remote sensing filling in many of the gaps. Field studies on the watershed scale will also be conducted at several small watersheds along North/South transects covering the Middle Yukon, Kuparuk, Upper Yukon, Mackenzie and Lena watersheds where long-term records and on-going measurement programs exist. The WaterWERCs model will be applied to these small sub-watersheds for calibration and validation using contemporary records, and to the entire watersheds for both climate scenarios of the past, present and future driven from our atmospheric modeling. The atmospheric model, PAM, is a state-of-the-art regional climate model that will be tailored for use in a pan-Arctic setting and will be driven by gridded atmospheric re-analyses. The atmospheric model results will be validated with available observational data and the gridded model output will be used to force a hydrologic model.