Solar Wind Driven Magnetospheric-Ionospheric Complex Dynamics Model

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This project will extend the WINDMI model of magnetospheric substorms. A new, spatially-resolved nonlinear dynamics model of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system will be developed. That coupled system is driven by inputs from the solar wind. The model is derived from Maxwell's equations and nonlinear plasma dynamics. It has numerous feedback and feed-forward loops that provide a low-dimensional dynamic system that can capture most of the important physical processes that lead to substorms. The method of treating the magnetosphere-ionosphere system as a low-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical system is very different from, but complementary to, the global scale simulations that are being done by a number of other research groups. The project will examine the differences in the power flow and energy releases that give rise to different types of substorms and intensifications. Because the model can be driven by information on the state of the solar wind that can be obtained either from observations at the L1 point or from solar observations in conjunction with solar-wind modeling, the model has predictive capabilities that are useful for space weather forecasting.