EAGER: Understanding complex wind-driven wildfire propagation patterns with a dynamical systems approach

不幸的是，在美国某些地区，强烈而漫长的野火季节已经成为一种常态。危险的野火往往是由强风引起的。风模式的混沌性使得预测和对野火生长的基本理解成为一项具有挑战性的任务。目前风力驱动的野火模型很难模拟和解释。在这个探索性项目中，关键目标是揭示风数据中隐藏的连贯模式，这些模式可用于更好地理解和预测风驱动的野火增长。该项目将造福社会，因为它为野火管理提供了指导方针，这将拯救生命并减轻遭受野火影响的社区的经济负担。在这项研究中，动力系统理论将被用于定义用于模拟风力驱动野火生长的运输问题的连贯结构。将利用动力系统和混沌平流领域的一系列基准问题以及更复杂的现实风型来研究相干结构在野火生长中的作用。具体来说，我们将探讨广义拉格朗日相干结构可以被定义为野火在某些情况下生长的模板的假设。犹他州的外展活动将使用可视化来展示计算机建模在管理野火中的重要性。这项研究将提供一个新的理论，不仅简化了我们对复杂风型下野火生长的理解，而且还指导了野火的管理和缓解。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Intense and long wildfire seasons have unfortunately become a normal routine in certain parts of the US. Dangerous wildfires are often driven by intense winds. The chaotic nature of wind patterns makes prediction and fundamental understanding of wildfire growth a challenging task. Current wind-driven wildfire models are difficult to simulate and interpret. In this exploratory project, the key objective is to uncover hidden coherent patterns in wind data that could be used to better understand and predict wildfire growth driven by wind. The project will benefit society as it provides guidelines for wildfire management, which will save lives and reduce the financial burden on communities exposed to wildfires. In this study, dynamical systems theory will be employed to define coherent structures customized to the transport problems used to model wind-driven wildfire growth. A set of benchmark problems motivated by the field of dynamical systems and chaotic advection together with more complex realistic wind patterns will be leveraged to study the role of coherent structures in wildfire growth. Specifically, the hypothesis that generlized Lagrangian coherent structures could be defined to provide a template for wildfire growth under certain scenarios will be explored. Outreach activities in Utah will use visualization to demonstrate the importance of computer modeling in managing wildfires. This study will provide a new theory that not only simplifies our understanding of wildfire growth under complex wind patterns but also guides wildfire management and mitigation.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.