SBIR Phase I: Relational Bayesian Modeling for Electronic Commerce

这个小型企业创新研究第一阶段项目将推进关系贝叶斯建模(RBM)技术，特别关注基于信息的技术在电子商务中的应用，特别是客户和应用系统行为建模。关系贝叶斯建模将图形统计建模的最新进展与现代关系和面向对象的数据模型相结合。成果管理法是紧凑、精确和高效的。它是紧凑的，因为以图形表示的结构信息标识了完成模型所需的最小数值信息集。它是精确的，因为任何具有任意复杂性的概率模型都可以表示。没有做出全局性的简化假设。最后，可以利用结构信息来支持模型的高效计算。在这项SBIR下的工作将集中在RBMS中的一个悬而未决的问题：多对一关系中概率依赖的表示和发现以及计算。初步研究表明，关系贝叶斯模型能够有效地捕捉动态行为，并可用于实时识别用户和系统的行为特征。这将使新一代自适应Web界面成为可能，提高多层系统性能的可靠性和可预测性，并成为实现自主计算的重要因素。这项技术的商业应用是电子商务，这需要该解决方案提供的多层系统提高可靠性和可预测性。

This Small Business Innovation Research Phase I Project will advance Relational Bayesian Modeling (RBM) technology, with specific focus on Information-based Technology applications in electronic commerce, especially customer and application-system behavior modeling. Relational Bayesian modeling combines recent advances in graphical statistical modeling with modern relational and object-oriented data models. An RBM is compact, precise, and efficient. It is compact because structural information, represented graphically, identifies a minimal set of numeric information needed to complete the model. It is precise because any probabilistic model, of arbitrary complexity, can be represented. No global simplifying assumptions are made. Finally, the structural information can be exploited to support efficient computation with the model. Work under this SBIR will focus an open problem in RBMs: the representation and discovery of, and computation with, probabilistic dependencies in many-to-one relations. Preliminary research has shown that relational Bayesian models can effectively capture dynamic behavior, and can be applied to recognize behavioral profiles in real-time, of both users and systems. This will enable a new generation of adaptive web interfaces, improve the reliability and predictability of multi-tier system performance, and be an important element in realizing autonomic computing. The commercial application for this technology is electronic commerce which is in need of the improve reliability and predictability of multi-tier systems which this solution will provide.