Monsoon variability and its physical mechanisms under different paleo- and future climate conditions

不同古和未来气候条件下的季风变率及其物理机制

• 批准号: 160424112
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Ulrich Cubasch
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Meteorologie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Units
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2009-12-31 至 2013-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/160424112?language=en
• 关键词: Monsoon; variability; its; physical; mechanisms

The main objective of his projects is the better understanding of forcing mechanisms, feedbacks and amplifiers concerning monsoon variability under different (past, present, future) climate conditions. Simulations with a global climate model (COSMOS) and with an imbedded regional climate model (CLM) will be performed and analysed. The models generate a physically consistent picture of the monsoon and its variability. The investigations will be carried out at intraseasonal to centennial time scales with an emphasis on interannual variability. Special focus will be laid on the occurrence of extreme events, their onset conditions, characteristics and impacts.The results of these simulations will help refine model predictions. They allow identifying large-scale conditions and teleconnections leading to extreme events.The proxy data generated within HIMPAC will be used to verify the model results, and the model will be used to check the consistency of the multi-proxy data. The advance in understanding the processes involved will lead to a better assessment of future climate change conditions and allows more accurately estimating their impacts.

他的项目的主要目标是更好地了解不同(过去、现在、未来)气候条件下季风变化的强迫机制、反馈和放大。将使用全球气候模式(COSMOS)和嵌入的区域气候模式(CLM)进行模拟和分析。这些模型生成了季风及其变异性的物理上一致的图像。调查将在季节内至百年的时间尺度上进行，重点是年际变化。将特别关注极端事件的发生、发生条件、特征和影响。这些模拟的结果将有助于改进模型预测。它们可以识别导致极端事件的大规模条件和遥相关。HIMPAC内生成的代理数据将用于验证模型结果，该模型将用于检查多代理数据的一致性。对所涉过程的了解的进展将导致对未来气候变化情况的更好评估，并使其能够更准确地估计其影响。

项目成果

Regional moisture change over India during the past Millennium: A comparison of multi-proxy reconstructions and climate model simulations

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.016
• 发表时间: 2014-11
• 期刊: Global and Planetary Change
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: Stefan Polanski;B. Fallah;D. Befort;Sushma Prasad;U. Cubasch

Intraseasonal variability of the Indian summer monsoon: wet and dry events in COSMO-CLM

印度夏季风的季节内变化：COSMO-CLM 中的干湿事件

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-2989-7
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Befort;G.C. Leckebusch;U. Cubasch
• 通讯作者: U. Cubasch