Fingerprints analysis of extreme events caused by stratospheric sulfur injections (FASSI)

平流层注硫引起的极端事件的指纹分析（FASSI）

• 批准号: 236721971
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Ulrich Cubasch
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Institut für Meteorologie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Priority Programmes
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2012-12-31 至 2017-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/236721971?language=en
• 关键词: Fingerprints; analysis; extreme; events; caused

Climate Engineering refers to a broad set of methods and technologies that aim to deliberately alter the climate system in order to alleviate the impacts of climate change. In this study we will focus on one of the solar radiation management methods, sulfate injection. The idea is reduce the global net radiative forcing by reducing the absorbed solar radiation and reflecting solar radiation back to space. The research intended in FASSI will focus on two questions: (I) what is the effect of stratospheric sulfate injection on climatic extremes and (II) how long will it take until such an effect will be detectable, i.e. statistically distinguishable from climate noise. For the investigation detection and attribution analysis will be used based on climate simulations with and without sulfate injection. A fingerprint of the stratospheric sulfate injection in terms of climatic extremes will be derived as well as an estimate on the timespan, on which the fingerprint may be detected. The analysis will focus on patterns, which are highly relevant for society such as extremes of the Indian monsoon and mid-latitude storm tracks as well as droughts in the Sahel zone. These results can be used to inform policy makers whether certain extreme events, such as a failure of the Indian monsoon, may be related to climate engineering activities.

气候工程是一套广泛的方法和技术，旨在故意改变气候系统，以减轻气候变化的影响。在这项研究中，我们将集中在太阳辐射管理方法之一，硫酸盐注射。这个想法是通过减少吸收的太阳辐射和将太阳辐射反射回太空来减少全球净辐射强迫。FASSI计划的研究将集中在两个问题上：（一）平流层硫酸盐注入对极端气候的影响是什么;（二）需要多长时间才能检测到这种影响，即在统计上与气候噪音区分开来。在调查中，将根据有和没有硫酸盐注入的气候模拟进行检测和归因分析。将推导出平流层硫酸盐注入在极端气候条件下的“指纹”，并对可能检测到“指纹”的时间跨度进行估计。分析将侧重于与社会高度相关的模式，如印度季风和中纬度风暴路径的极端情况以及萨赫勒地区的干旱。这些结果可用于告知决策者某些极端事件，如印度季风的失败，是否可能与气候工程活动有关。