Analysis of the dynamics of palaeo and modern climate data under consideration of dating erros and with the focus on climate transitions and interrelations between teleconnections and regional climate

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We propose to study multi-proxy data series of climate in order to detect complex interrelations and causal connections by using modern techniques of nonlinear data analysis. Moreover, the model simulation results will be verified with the multi proxy data generated in the research group. In a close collaboration between the expertise from complex systems and nonlinear data analysis (Transdisciplinary Concepts and Methods, PIK) and palaeoclimate archives (Institute of Geosciences at UP; GFZ Potsdam) and modelling (Meteorological Institute of Free University Berlin), we will1. develop a technique for considering dating uncertainties as uncertainties of states and for quantifying the reliability of the analysis over the time scale (e.g., by providing a test for significance);2. analyse the dynamics and similarities of palaeo and modern climate data (IP1, IP3, IP4, IP5, IP6) in order to detect climate transitions and interrelations between teleconnections and regional climate on different time scales;3. evaluate the simulation results (IP8) with the observed situation (pollen, isotope records; input from IP1, IP3, IP6) by analysis of characteristic time scales, transitions and recurrent episodes, and4. adapt and further develop proposed techniques (especially recurrence quantification) for the application to highly multivariate data sets, including the development of a significance test for the recurrence quantification and inclusion of the uncertainties due to the dating errors.