WCR: Effect of Changes in Climate, Snow Pack, Glaciers, and Permafrost on River Runoff in Tien Shan, Central Asia

世界上最大的封闭排水系统中水循环组分的长期动态评价尚未得到详细的研究。天山的地理位置和丰富的数据提供了一个独特的机会来评估水在地表和地下水文水库之间的路径，并量化不同停留时间的地表水库之间的降水分配。本研究的主要目的是估算、模拟和预测中亚高寒盆地水循环组分和水成分的变化。本项目拟：(1)提供背景资料，评估降水类型和数量、蒸发量、河流径流量和雪/冰川/冻土径流量、主要离子、pH值、电导率和溶解氧的长期变化。这些数据将公布在爱达荷大学的网站上（www.mines.uidaho.edu/~aizen/aizen.html）。(2)发现对水化学的控制（冰川、积雪和永久冻土河流径流的变化、大气沉积、岩石风化等）。确定以流域地质为重点的投入/产出化学预算。(3)实施模块化设计、确定性、分布参数的建模系统，即“降水径流模拟系统”和/或“融雪径流模型”的冰雪模拟，应用模拟活动层冻结和融化的业务径流模型。地球化学建模包括各种元素的规范和基于MINTEQA2和WATEQ的各种金属饱和度指数的确定。质量平衡的计算将由BALANCE、NETPATH和PHREEQE等计算机代码提供便利。模拟结果的验证将基于模型校准中使用的数据集以外的数据集。(4)通过尺度关系发展和验证从小水文单元到复杂地理系统的过渡，并确定点测量的分布。将使用三个具有代表性的子流域来确定每个时间步（每日、每月、季节性和每年）的水平衡。(5)应用气候情景评估气候对未来水资源的影响，并模拟全球变暖对水化学的影响。这项综合研究的基础是与中亚、美国、日本和中国机构的合作。

0233583Aizen The evaluation of the long-term dynamics of water cycle components in the World's largest closed drainage system has not been examined in detail. Location of the Tien Shan and rich data provide a unique opportunity to assess the pathways of water among hydrological surface and subsurface reservoirs and to quantify the precipitation partitioning among land surface stores with different residence times. The main objective of our research is estimating, simulating, and predicting the variability in water cycle components and water composition in the Central Asian alpine basins. This project proposes to: (1) Provide background information and evaluate the long-term changes in type and quantity of precipitation, evaporation, total river runoff and snow/glacier/permafrost runoff, major ions, pH, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen. This data will be posted at the University of Idaho web site (www.mines.uidaho.edu/~aizen/aizen.html). (2) Discover the controls on the water chemistry (changes in glacier, snow, and permafrost river runoff, atmospheric deposition, rock weathering, etc.). Define the input/output chemical budget emphasizing on the watershed geology. (3) Implement modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling systems: i.e., "Precipitation Runoff Modeling System" and/or snow-ice simulation with "Snowmelt Runoff Model" in application with the operational runoff modeling, which simulates active layer freezing and thawing. Geochemical modeling includes specification of the various elements and determination of saturation indices for various metals based on MINTEQA2 and WATEQ. Mass-balance calculations will be facilitated by computer codes such as BALANCE, NETPATH and PHREEQE. Validation of simulation results will be based on data sets other than those used in model calibration. (4) Develop and validate the transition from small hydrological units to complex geographical systems through the scaling relationships and to determine the distribution of point measurements. Three representative sub-basins will be used to determine water balances using data during each time step (daily, monthly, seasonally, and annually). (5) Apply climate scenarios to assess the climate-driven impact on future water resources and model the effect of global warming on water chemistry. The basis of this integrative research is the collaboration with the Central Asian, the USA, the Japan, and the Chinese institutions.