WCR: Effect of Changes in Climate, Snow Pack, Glaciers, and Permafrost on River Runoff in Tien Shan, Central Asia

0233583蓝染在世界上最大的封闭排水系统的水循环组件的长期动态的评估还没有详细检查。天山的位置和丰富的数据提供了一个独特的机会，以评估水文地表和地下水库之间的水的路径，并量化不同停留时间的陆地表面商店之间的降水分配。我们的研究的主要目标是估计，模拟和预测中亚高山盆地的水循环成分和水成分的变化。该项目建议：（1）提供背景资料，并评估降水、蒸发、河流径流总量和雪/冰川/永久冻土径流、主要离子、pH值、电导率和溶解氧的类型和数量的长期变化。这些数据将公布在爱达荷州大学的网站（www.mines.uidaho.edu/aizen/aizen.html）。(2)探索对水化学的控制（冰川、雪和永久冻土河流径流、大气沉积、岩石风化等的变化）。定义输入/输出化学预算，强调流域地质。(3)实现模块化设计、确定性、分布参数建模系统：即，“降水径流模拟系统”和/或“融雪径流模型”的冰雪模拟与模拟活动层冻结和融化的业务径流模拟一起应用。地球化学建模包括各种元素的规格和基于MINTEQA 2和WATEQ的各种金属的饱和指数的确定。质量平衡计算将通过计算机代码（如BALANCE、NETPATH和PHREEQE）进行。模拟结果的验证将基于模型校准中使用的数据集以外的数据集。(4)开发和验证从小型水文单位到复杂的地理系统的过渡，通过缩放关系，并确定点测量的分布。将使用三个具有代表性的子流域，使用每个时间步骤（每日、每月、季节和每年）的数据确定水平衡。(5)应用气候情景来评估气候驱动对未来水资源的影响，并模拟全球变暖对水化学的影响。 这种综合研究的基础是与中亚，美国，日本和中国机构的合作。

0233583Aizen The evaluation of the long-term dynamics of water cycle components in the World's largest closed drainage system has not been examined in detail. Location of the Tien Shan and rich data provide a unique opportunity to assess the pathways of water among hydrological surface and subsurface reservoirs and to quantify the precipitation partitioning among land surface stores with different residence times. The main objective of our research is estimating, simulating, and predicting the variability in water cycle components and water composition in the Central Asian alpine basins. This project proposes to: (1) Provide background information and evaluate the long-term changes in type and quantity of precipitation, evaporation, total river runoff and snow/glacier/permafrost runoff, major ions, pH, conductivity, and dissolved oxygen. This data will be posted at the University of Idaho web site (www.mines.uidaho.edu/~aizen/aizen.html). (2) Discover the controls on the water chemistry (changes in glacier, snow, and permafrost river runoff, atmospheric deposition, rock weathering, etc.). Define the input/output chemical budget emphasizing on the watershed geology. (3) Implement modular-design, deterministic, distributed-parameter modeling systems: i.e., "Precipitation Runoff Modeling System" and/or snow-ice simulation with "Snowmelt Runoff Model" in application with the operational runoff modeling, which simulates active layer freezing and thawing. Geochemical modeling includes specification of the various elements and determination of saturation indices for various metals based on MINTEQA2 and WATEQ. Mass-balance calculations will be facilitated by computer codes such as BALANCE, NETPATH and PHREEQE. Validation of simulation results will be based on data sets other than those used in model calibration. (4) Develop and validate the transition from small hydrological units to complex geographical systems through the scaling relationships and to determine the distribution of point measurements. Three representative sub-basins will be used to determine water balances using data during each time step (daily, monthly, seasonally, and annually). (5) Apply climate scenarios to assess the climate-driven impact on future water resources and model the effect of global warming on water chemistry. The basis of this integrative research is the collaboration with the Central Asian, the USA, the Japan, and the Chinese institutions.