LTREB: Continuing Long-Term Demography of Florida Scrub Plants

智力价值：该奖项将继续对佛罗里达沙丘的植物种群进行长期的人口统计学研究。将增加三种新的建模方法：基于个体的建模，改进人口比率估计的标记再捕获建模，以及更大规模的空间显式建模。长期人口统计数据集可以描述环境随机性、微生境、火灾影响和超种群动态。环境随机性被纳入人口预测。此外，还研究了微生境对人口统计学变异的影响。这些微栖息地在很大程度上受火的控制，火会产生或扩大缝隙，这是许多研究物种首选的微栖息地。将扩大生境斑块中物种发生的数据收集，扩大空间生境结构与人口统计学相互作用的分析。将建立以观测数据和实验结果为参数化的人口变化空间明确模型。一个新的焦点将是佛罗里达灌丛植物在实验性恢复中的长期人口统计。一个单一物种的引进正在一个用火恢复的沙丘生态系统中进行。同时，一个长期的，多物种的人口统计实验将在一个大的恢复开始。将评估为引进种群相对于野生种群提供同等或改善的人口统计学表现的条件的恢复目标。在恢复过程中的实验引种可以反过来提供对佛罗里达灌丛物种的定植动态、扩散速率和微场地要求的见解。更广泛的影响：这项关于佛罗里达灌丛植物长期人口统计的研究积累了比研究进展更广泛的影响的数据和模型。数据和模型与科学界共享，从而促进了更有效的保护生物学。此外，本研究为研究生和本科生提供了许多研究机会。

Intellectual Merit: This award will continue a long-term demographic study on plant populations in the Florida sandhills. Three new types of modeling approaches will be added: individual-based modeling, mark-recapture modeling to improve estimates of demographic rates, and larger-scale, spatially explicit modeling. The long-term demographic datasets allow characterization of environmental stochasticity, microhabitats, effects of fire, and metapopulation dynamics. Environmental stochasticity is incorporated into demographic projections. In addition, microhabitat effects on demographic variation have been characterized. These microhabitats are controlled in large part by fire, which creates or enlarges gaps, the preferred microhabitat for many of the study species. Expanded data collection on species' occurrences in defined habitat patches and expanded analyses of the interaction of spatial habitat structure and demography will occur. Spatially explicit models of demographic change will be built that are parameterized with observational data and experimental results. A new focus will be the long-term demography of Florida scrub plants in experimental restorations. One single-species introduction is underway in a sandhill ecosystem being restored with fire. Also, a long-term, multi-species demographic experiment within a large restoration will be started. Restoration goals of providing conditions for equivalent or improved demographic performance of introduced populations relative to wild populations will be evaluated. Experimental introductions in the restoration can in turn provide insights into colonization dynamics, dispersal rates, and microsite requirements of Florida scrub species. Broader Impacts: This research on the long-term demography of Florida scrub plants has accumulated data and models that have a broader impact than the advancement of research. Data and models are shared with the scientific community and thus facilitated more effective conservation biology. In addition, this study has provided many graduate and undergraduate student research opportunities.