LTREB: Continuing Long-Term Demography of Florida Scrub Plants

智力优势：该奖项将继续对佛罗里达沙丘的植物种群进行长期的人口统计学研究。将增加三种新的建模方法：基于个人的建模，标记-再捕获建模，以改善人口统计率的估计，以及更大规模的空间显式建模。长期的人口数据集可以表征环境随机性，微生境，火灾的影响，和集合种群动态。环境随机性被纳入人口预测。此外，对人口变化的微生境的影响的特点。这些微生境在很大程度上是由火控制的，火会产生或扩大空隙，这是许多研究物种的首选微生境。将扩大关于物种在确定的生境斑块中出现的数据收集，并扩大对空间生境结构和人口统计相互作用的分析。将建立空间上明确的人口变化模型，这些模型将根据观测数据和实验结果进行参数化。一个新的重点将是佛罗里达灌木植物在实验性植被的长期人口统计。一个单一物种的引进正在进行中的沙丘生态系统正在恢复与火灾。此外，还将在一个大的恢复范围内开始一个长期的、多物种的人口统计实验。恢复目标，提供条件，引进人口相对于野生人口的人口统计学表现相当或改善将进行评估。在恢复的实验介绍，反过来可以提供深入了解殖民动态，扩散率，和微网站的要求佛罗里达灌木树种。更广泛的影响：这项关于佛罗里达灌木植物长期人口统计学的研究积累了数据和模型，其影响比研究的进步更广泛。与科学界分享数据和模型，从而促进更有效的保护生物学。此外，这项研究提供了许多研究生和本科生的研究机会。

Intellectual Merit: This award will continue a long-term demographic study on plant populations in the Florida sandhills. Three new types of modeling approaches will be added: individual-based modeling, mark-recapture modeling to improve estimates of demographic rates, and larger-scale, spatially explicit modeling. The long-term demographic datasets allow characterization of environmental stochasticity, microhabitats, effects of fire, and metapopulation dynamics. Environmental stochasticity is incorporated into demographic projections. In addition, microhabitat effects on demographic variation have been characterized. These microhabitats are controlled in large part by fire, which creates or enlarges gaps, the preferred microhabitat for many of the study species. Expanded data collection on species' occurrences in defined habitat patches and expanded analyses of the interaction of spatial habitat structure and demography will occur. Spatially explicit models of demographic change will be built that are parameterized with observational data and experimental results. A new focus will be the long-term demography of Florida scrub plants in experimental restorations. One single-species introduction is underway in a sandhill ecosystem being restored with fire. Also, a long-term, multi-species demographic experiment within a large restoration will be started. Restoration goals of providing conditions for equivalent or improved demographic performance of introduced populations relative to wild populations will be evaluated. Experimental introductions in the restoration can in turn provide insights into colonization dynamics, dispersal rates, and microsite requirements of Florida scrub species. Broader Impacts: This research on the long-term demography of Florida scrub plants has accumulated data and models that have a broader impact than the advancement of research. Data and models are shared with the scientific community and thus facilitated more effective conservation biology. In addition, this study has provided many graduate and undergraduate student research opportunities.