Welfare Reform and Migration of Poor Families

本研究考察了1996年福利改革立法中福利政策的下放是否创造了新的州福利和规则不平等，从而导致不同福利贫困家庭群体（特别是非洲裔美国人和白人单身母亲和移民家庭）之间的州际和州内迁移。本研究使用了三个来源的数据——2001-2004年收入和计划参与调查（SIPP）的面板，城市研究所的福利规则数据库和根据2003年美国社区调查人口普查数据创建的当地劳动力市场特征文件。这些数据库将被合并，以创建一个纵向的、两阶段的福利福利“推”和“拉”对贫困移民和单亲母亲家庭移民行为的影响规范。使用国家福利政策不平等框架，研究者将使用因子分析从2000年后的文本政策手册中制定措施，以操作多个福利和资格规则维度，并测试假设的国家计划对移民的影响。将使用离散时间事件历史分析来预测SIPP数据中的迁移事件（状态间和状态内迁移）。调查将使用多层次的分层建模策略，这是对福利贫困家庭的三个迁移决定因素假设的综合的，以前未经测试的微观宏观分析。这些测试评估1)随时间变化的国家福利政策特征的影响；2)个人和家庭特征，包括固定时间移民、婚姻状况和种族，来自信息丰富的SIPP文件；3)当地劳动力市场层面经济机会结构指标。与之前的研究类似，首先通过确定拉效应的“目的地模型”来单独分析假设协变量的推拉迁移效应，然后通过根据国家政策标准按州分类确定潜在移民原籍地的推拉效应的“出发模型”来完成。这个包含国家福利政策、当地劳动力市场以及个人和家庭指标的两阶段模型将为福利政策对移民的影响提供强有力的检验。

SES-0241848Gordon F. De JongDeborah J. Graefe, Pennsylvania State UniversityThis study examines whether devolution of welfare policy in the 1996 welfare reform legislation created new state benefits and rules inequalities that engender inter- and intra-state migration among distinct groups of welfare poor families, specifically African American and white single mothers and immigrant families. This study uses data from three sources-- the 2001-2004 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), the Urban Institute's Welfare Rules Database and a local labor market characteristics file created from 2003 American Community Survey census data. These databases will be merged to create a longitudinal, two-stage specification of welfare-benefit "push" and "pull" impacts on poor immigrant and single-mother-headed families' migration behavior. Using a state welfare policy inequality framework, the investigators will use factor analysis to develop measures from post-2000 textual policy manuals to operationalize multiple welfare benefit and eligibility rule dimensions and to test hypothesized state program effects on migration. A discrete-time event history analysis will be used to predict migration events (inter- and intra-state migration) in the SIPP data. The investigations will use a multi-level hierarchical modeling strategy, which is an integrated, and previously untested, micro-macro analysis of three determinant-of-migration hypotheses for welfare poor families. These tests evaluate effects of 1) time-varying state welfare policy characteristics; 2) individual and family characteristics, including fixed-time immigrant and marital status and race, from the information-rich SIPP files, and 3) local labor market-level economic opportunity structure indicators. Similar to previous studies, a separate analysis of push and pull migration effects of hypothesized co-variates will be completed first through, a "destination model" for identifying pull effects, and then, a "departure model" which identifies push effects for potential migrants' origin locations grouped by class of states according to state policy criteria. This two-stage model with state welfare policy, local labor market, and individual and household indicators will provide a strong test of the welfare policy impact on migration.